MLB Preview Tuesday 7/2/24

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Preview! We’ve got a full slate of games with some intriguing pitching matchups. Let’s break down each game, focusing on the pitching and overall game context.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:40 PM EDT – PNC Park

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Gibson (RHP) vs. Mitch Keller (RHP)

• Kyle Gibson: 4.34 ERA, 20% K rate, 8% BB rate, 49% GB rate. Gibson has been effective at inducing ground balls and limiting hard contact (32% HC).
• Mitch Keller: 3.86 ERA, 24% K rate, 7% BB rate, 42% GB rate. Keller has been more consistent, with a lower xERA and xwOBA compared to Gibson.

Game Insights:

• Cardinals have a .316 wOBA against right-handers, showing some vulnerability.
• Pirates have a .321 wOBA against righties, giving them a slight edge offensively.
• Both pitchers have ground ball tendencies, which could lead to a low-scoring game.

Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins – 6:40 PM EDT – LoanDepot Park

Pitching Matchup: Kutter Crawford (RHP) vs. Valente Bellozo (RHP)

• Kutter Crawford: 3.85 ERA, 25% K rate, 7% BB rate, 35% GB rate. Crawford’s strikeout ability and lower xERA suggest strong potential.
• Valente Bellozo: No significant MLB data available, making him a wildcard.

Game Insights:

• Red Sox have a potent offense against right-handers with a .338 wOBA.
• Marlins struggle against right-handers with a .289 wOBA.
• Crawford’s strikeout potential could dominate the Marlins’ weaker lineup.

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians – 6:40 PM EDT – Progressive Field

Pitching Matchup: Chris Flexen (RHP) vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP)

• Chris Flexen: 6.10 ERA, 17% K rate, 9% BB rate, 37% GB rate. Flexen has struggled significantly, indicated by his high ERA and poor underlying metrics.
• Carlos Carrasco: 6.21 ERA, 17% K rate, 9% BB rate, 46% GB rate. Carrasco has similar struggles but a better ground ball rate.

Game Insights:

• Guardians have a strong offense against right-handers with a .327 wOBA.
• White Sox have a weak offense against righties with a .285 wOBA.
• Guardians have the upper hand, especially against Flexen’s struggling performance.

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals – 6:45 PM EDT – Nationals Park

Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea (LHP) vs. DJ Herz (LHP)

• Sean Manaea: 4.33 ERA, 25% K rate, 9% BB rate, 38% GB rate. Manaea has solid strikeout numbers but has struggled with consistency.
• DJ Herz: 4.50 ERA, 33% K rate, 6% BB rate, 33% GB rate. Herz’s high strikeout rate and lower xERA make him a potential standout.

Game Insights:

• Nationals have a .297 wOBA against lefties, indicating moderate success.
• Mets are strong against left-handers with a .350 wOBA.
• Herz’s strikeout potential could limit the Mets’ strong offense.

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees – 7:05 PM EDT – Yankee Stadium

Pitching Matchup: Graham Ashcraft (RHP) vs. Luis Gil (RHP)

• Graham Ashcraft: 4.85 ERA, 18% K rate, 8% BB rate, 48% GB rate. Ashcraft relies on ground balls but lacks strikeout upside.
• Luis Gil: 2.77 ERA, 29% K rate, 12% BB rate, 38% GB rate. Gil’s impressive ERA and strikeout rate make him a strong option.

Game Insights:

• Yankees have a powerful offense against righties with a .346 wOBA.
• Reds struggle against right-handers with a .304 wOBA.
• Gil’s high strikeout rate gives the Yankees a clear advantage.

Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 PM EDT – Rogers Centre

Pitching Matchup: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) vs. Jose Berrios (RHP)

• Spencer Arrighetti: 6.36 ERA, 24% K rate, 13% BB rate, 38% GB rate. Arrighetti has significant control issues.
• Jose Berrios: 3.58 ERA, 22% K rate, 6% BB rate, 42% GB rate. Berrios has been reliable and consistent.

Game Insights:

• Blue Jays have a .306 wOBA against righties, indicating moderate success.
• Astros are strong with a .324 wOBA against right-handers.
• Berrios’ consistency makes the Blue Jays slight favorites, but the Astros’ offense poses a challenge.

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves – 7:20 PM EDT – Truist Park

Pitching Matchup: Hayden Birdsong (RHP) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)

• Hayden Birdsong: No significant MLB data available, making him a wildcard.
• Reynaldo Lopez: 2.37 ERA, 28% K rate, 10% BB rate, 38% GB rate. Lopez’s impressive ERA and strikeout rate are notable.

Game Insights:

• Braves’ offense is strong against righties with a .308 wOBA.
• Giants struggle against right-handers with a .291 wOBA.
• Lopez’s dominance gives the Braves a significant advantage.

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins – 7:40 PM EDT – Target Field

Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal (LHP) vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP)

• Tarik Skubal: 2.64 ERA, 31% K rate, 5% BB rate, 48% GB rate. Skubal’s metrics are outstanding.
• Simeon Woods Richardson: 3.72 ERA, 21% K rate, 7% BB rate, 39% GB rate. Richardson is solid but not as dominant as Skubal.

Game Insights:

• Twins have a .323 wOBA against lefties, posing a moderate challenge.
• Tigers struggle against right-handers with a .302 wOBA.
• Skubal’s dominance gives the Tigers an edge despite their offensive struggles.

San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers – 8:05 PM EDT – Globe Life Field

Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease (RHP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP)

• Dylan Cease: 4.43 ERA, 28% K rate, 9% BB rate, 36% GB rate. Cease’s strikeout ability is a key asset.
• Nathan Eovaldi: 3.47 ERA, 24% K rate, 9% BB rate, 51% GB rate. Eovaldi’s ground ball rate and lower ERA are notable.

Game Insights:

• Rangers have a .298 wOBA against righties, showing moderate success.
• Padres’ offense is strong against right-handers with a .344 wOBA.
• This could be a tightly contested game with both pitchers showing strong metrics.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM EDT – Wrigley Field

Pitching Matchup: Michael Mercado (RHP) vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP)

• Michael Mercado: No significant MLB data available, making him a wildcard.
• Hayden Wesneski: 4.21 ERA, 22% K rate, 9% BB rate, 42% GB rate. Wesneski’s numbers indicate moderate success.

Game Insights:

• Cubs’ offense is solid against right-handers with a .308 wOBA.
• Phillies are strong against righties with a .332 wOBA.
• This game could see some offense given the lack of elite pitching metrics.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals – 8:10 PM EDT – Kauffman Stadium

Pitching Matchup: Zack Littell (RHP) vs. Brady Singer (RHP)

• Zack Littell: 4.15 ERA, 21% K rate, 4% BB rate, 38% GB rate. Littell’s control is a key strength.
• Brady Singer: 4.77 ERA, 20% K rate, 7% BB rate, 50% GB rate. Singer’s ground ball rate is notable but his ERA is concerning.

Game Insights:

• Royals have a .307 wOBA against right-handers, showing moderate success.
• Rays are strong with a .303 wOBA against righties.
• Singer’s ground ball rate gives the Royals a slight edge, but Littell’s control could be a factor.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies – 8:40 PM EDT – Coors Field

Pitching Matchup: Dallas Keuchel (LHP) vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP)

• Dallas Keuchel: 5.97 ERA, 15% K rate, 11% BB rate, 53% GB rate. Keuchel’s ground ball rate is high, but his ERA and strikeout rate are concerning.
• Ryan Feltner: 5.95 ERA, 20% K rate, 9% BB rate, 45% GB rate. Feltner’s metrics are similarly concerning.

Game Insights:

• Rockies have a .306 wOBA against left-handers, showing moderate success.
• Brewers are strong with a .335 wOBA against righties.
• This game could see high scoring due to the pitching struggles on both sides.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners – 9:40 PM EDT – T-Mobile Park

Pitching Matchup: Grayson Rodriguez (RHP) vs. George Kirby (RHP)

• Grayson Rodriguez: 4.15 ERA, 26% K rate, 8% BB rate, 43% GB rate. Rodriguez’s strikeout rate and ground ball rate are strong.
• George Kirby: 3.39 ERA, 23% K rate, 3% BB rate, 42% GB rate. Kirby’s control is exceptional.

Game Insights:

• Mariners have a .305 wOBA against right-handers, showing moderate success.
• Orioles are strong with a .339 wOBA against righties.
• Kirby’s control gives the Mariners a slight edge, but Rodriguez’s strikeout ability makes this an intriguing matchup.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics – 9:40 PM EDT – Oakland Coliseum

Pitching Matchup: Jose Soriano (RHP) vs. Mitch Spence (RHP)

• Jose Soriano: 3.54 ERA, 24% K rate, 11% BB rate, 57% GB rate. Soriano’s ground ball rate is exceptional.
• Mitch Spence: 3.86 ERA, 20% K rate, 6% BB rate, 49% GB rate. Spence’s control is solid but not as dominant as Soriano.

Game Insights:

• Athletics have a .315 wOBA against right-handers, showing moderate success.
• Angels are strong with a .293 wOBA against righties.
• Soriano’s ground ball rate and strikeout ability give the Angels an edge.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 PM EDT – Dodger Stadium

Pitching Matchup: Ryne Nelson (RHP) vs. Bobby Miller (RHP)

• Ryne Nelson: 5.27 ERA, 15% K rate, 7% BB rate, 39% GB rate. Nelson’s metrics are concerning with a high ERA and low strikeout rate.
• Bobby Miller: 4.05 ERA, 24% K rate, 7% BB rate, 48% GB rate. Miller’s ground ball rate and strikeout ability are notable.

Game Insights:

• Dodgers have a .327 wOBA against right-handers, showing strong success.
• Diamondbacks struggle against right-handers with a .313 wOBA.
• Miller’s metrics give the Dodgers a clear edge in this matchup.

That wraps up our pitching preview for today’s MLB DFS slate. Be sure to check back later for our Top Hitters and Top Stacks article. Happy DFSing!