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MLB

MLB Preview Tuesday 6/18/24

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C Galligan  
<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

Today’s MLB slate features 15 games, split into an early slate starting at 6:10 PM EST with 5 games, and a main slate at 7:05 PM EST with 10 games. This preview will focus primarily on the pitching matchups, providing insights into each game’s context. Let’s dive in.

Early Slate

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins

Overview:

  • Lance Lynn:
    • Key Stats: 5.19 ERA, 23% K rate, 9% BB rate, .323 xwOBA
    • Insight: Lynn has struggled with consistency but has shown the ability to miss bats. His high walk rate and home run susceptibility are concerns against a Marlins lineup that can capitalize on mistakes.
    • Key Points:
      • High strikeout potential
      • Vulnerable to walks and home runs
  • Roddery Munoz:
    • Key Stats: 4.56 ERA, 26% K rate, 12% BB rate, .385 xwOBA
    • Insight: Munoz’s high strikeout rate is promising, but his elevated walk rate and hard contact allowed could be exploited by a disciplined Cardinals lineup.
    • Key Points:
      • High strikeout rate
      • High walk rate and hard contact allowed

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Overview:

  • Nick Lodolo:
    • Key Stats: 4.18 ERA, 27% K rate, 6% BB rate, .286 xwOBA
    • Insight: Lodolo has been effective, especially with his strikeout ability and control. The Pirates struggle against left-handed pitching, making Lodolo a strong play.
    • Key Points:
      • High strikeout rate
      • Effective against left-handed hitters
  • Bailey Falter:
    • Key Stats: 4.65 ERA, 17% K rate, 6% BB rate, .348 xwOBA
    • Insight: Falter has been less effective, with a below-average strikeout rate and significant hard contact allowed. The Reds’ offense could take advantage.
    • Key Points:
      • Low strikeout rate
      • High hard contact allowed

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

  • Time: 6:40 PM EST
  • Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
  • Pitching Matchup: Mike King (RHP) vs. Aaron Nola (RHP)

Overview:

  • Mike King:
    • Key Stats: 3.12 ERA, 28% K rate, 9% BB rate, .307 xwOBA
    • Insight: King has been solid, with a good mix of strikeouts and ground balls. The Phillies’ lineup presents a tough challenge, but King’s current form is encouraging.
    • Key Points:
      • High strikeout rate
      • Effective ground ball pitcher
  • Aaron Nola:
    • Key Stats: 4.15 ERA, 25% K rate, 6% BB rate, .305 xwOBA
    • Insight: Nola has underperformed his peripherals, suggesting potential for better results. His ability to limit walks and generate strikeouts makes him a reliable option against the Padres.
    • Key Points:
      • Solid strikeout and walk rates
      • Potential for better performance

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians

Overview:

  • Bryce Miller:
    • Key Stats: 4.00 ERA, 23% K rate, 6% BB rate, .318 xwOBA
    • Insight: Miller has been steady, though not dominant. His matchup against a Cleveland lineup that struggles against righties could work in his favor.
    • Key Points:
      • Steady performance
      • Favorable matchup against righties
  • Triston McKenzie:
    • Key Stats: 4.29 ERA, 22% K rate, 14% BB rate, .344 xwOBA
    • Insight: McKenzie’s high walk rate and inconsistent performance are concerning. However, his strikeout potential gives him upside against a Mariners lineup that can be boom or bust.
    • Key Points:
      • High walk rate
      • Strikeout potential

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

Overview:

  • Slade Cecconi:
    • Key Stats: 5.80 ERA, 18% K rate, 4% BB rate, .332 xwOBA
    • Insight: Cecconi has struggled, particularly with allowing hard contact. The Nationals’ offense, while not elite, could find success against him.
    • Key Points:
      • Struggles with hard contact
      • Low strikeout rate
  • Jake Irvin:
    • Key Stats: 3.97 ERA, 20% K rate, 8% BB rate, .310 xwOBA
    • Insight: Irvin has been solid, particularly in limiting walks. The Diamondbacks’ lineup has power, but Irvin’s ability to induce ground balls could mitigate the damage.
    • Key Points:
      • Effective ground ball pitcher
      • Solid control

Main Slate

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

Overview:

  • Albert Suarez:
    • Key Stats: 1.61 ERA, 21% K rate, 8% BB rate, .295 xwOBA
    • Insight: Suarez has been outstanding in limited action. His matchup against a potent Yankees lineup will test his mettle, especially in a hitter-friendly park.
    • Key Points:
      • Outstanding ERA
      • Tough matchup in a hitter-friendly park
  • Nestor Cortes:
    • Key Stats: 4.17 ERA, 24% K rate, 6% BB rate, .288 xwOBA
    • Insight: Cortes has been a steady presence in the Yankees’ rotation. His ability to limit walks and keep the ball in the park will be key against a balanced Orioles lineup.
    • Key Points:
      • Steady performance
      • Effective control

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Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Overview:

  • Tanner Houck:
    • Key Stats: 3.65 ERA, 23% K rate, 7% BB rate, .288 xwOBA
    • Insight: Houck’s ground ball rate is impressive, and he’ll need it against a powerful Blue Jays lineup that thrives at home.
    • Key Points:
      • High ground ball rate
      • Tough matchup against a powerful lineup
  • Chris Bassitt:
    • Key Stats: 3.59 ERA, 22% K rate, 8% BB rate, .322 xwOBA
    • Insight: Bassitt has been effective but faces a Red Sox lineup that can hit for power and average. Limiting hard contact will be crucial for Bassitt.
    • Key Points:
      • Effective performance
      • Needs to limit hard contact

Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves

Overview:

  • Casey Mize:
    • Key Stats: 4.43 ERA, 15% K rate, 7% BB rate, .327 xwOBA
    • Insight: Mize’s low strikeout rate is concerning against a Braves lineup that can punish mistakes. His ground ball tendencies will need to be on point.
    • Key Points:
      • Low strikeout rate
      • High ground ball rate
  • Spencer Schwellenbach:
    • Key Stats: 6.32 ERA, 18% K rate, 7% BB rate, .312 xwOBA
    • Insight: Schwellenbach has struggled mightily, making the Tigers an intriguing underdog. The Braves’ potent offense will look to capitalize on his struggles.
    • Key Points:
      • High ERA
      • Struggles with consistency

Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins

Overview:

  • Aaron Civale:
    • Key Stats: 4.11 ERA, 23% K rate, 7% BB rate, .318 xwOBA
    • Insight: Civale has been solid, but faces a tough Twins lineup that has power throughout. His ability to limit walks and keep the ball in the park will be key.
    • Key Points:
      • Solid strikeout rate
      • Tough matchup
  • Pablo Lopez:
    • Key Stats: 4.13 ERA, 28% K rate, 6% BB rate, .289 xwOBA
    • Insight: Lopez has been a strikeout machine and will be crucial in shutting down the Rays’ aggressive lineup. His ability to limit hard contact will be a deciding factor.
    • Key Points:
      • High strikeout rate
      • Effective control

New York Mets at Texas Rangers

Overview:

  • Luis Severino:
    • Key Stats: 5.00 ERA, 19% K rate, 9% BB rate, .303 xwOBA
    • Insight: Severino has struggled with consistency and control. The Rangers’ offense, particularly at home, will look to exploit his weaknesses.
    • Key Points:
      • Inconsistent performance
      • Struggles with control
  • Michael Lorenzen:
    • Key Stats: 3.78 ERA, 18% K rate, 9% BB rate, .339 xwOBA
    • Insight: Lorenzen has been solid but faces a Mets lineup that can be dangerous. His ability to induce ground balls and limit walks will be crucial.
    • Key Points:
      • Effective ground ball pitcher
      • Needs to limit walks

San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs

Overview:

  • Logan Webb:
    • Key Stats: 3.18 ERA, 22% K rate, 4% BB rate, .340 xwOBA
    • Insight: Webb has been reliable, with an excellent ground ball rate. He’ll need it against a Cubs lineup that can hit for power.
    • Key Points:
      • High ground ball rate
      • Consistent performance
  • Justin Steele:
    • Key Stats: 3.10 ERA, 24% K rate, 5% BB rate, .283 xwOBA
    • Insight: Steele has been impressive, and his ability to limit hard contact makes him a strong play against a Giants lineup that has struggled against lefties.
    • Key Points:
      • Impressive performance
      • Effective against left-handed hitters

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Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox

Overview:

  • Framber Valdez:
    • Key Stats: 3.59 ERA, 23% K rate, 7% BB rate, .319 xwOBA
    • Insight: Valdez’s ground ball rate is elite, and he’ll need it against a White Sox lineup that can be dangerous but inconsistent.
    • Key Points:
      • Elite ground ball rate
      • Consistent performance
  • Jonathan Cannon:
    • Key Stats: 4.56 ERA, 24% K rate, 5% BB rate, .323 xwOBA
    • Insight: Cannon has shown promise but faces a tough Astros lineup. His ability to limit walks and keep the ball in the park will be key.
    • Key Points:
      • Promising strikeout rate
      • Tough matchup

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Overview:

  • Walker Buehler:
    • Key Stats: 4.64 ERA, 20% K rate, 6% BB rate, .337 xwOBA
    • Insight: Buehler has struggled, and pitching at Coors Field is always a challenge. The Rockies’ lineup could capitalize on his recent struggles.
    • Key Points:
      • Recent struggles
      • Tough environment at Coors Field
  • Austin Gomber:
    • Key Stats: 5.09 ERA, 15% K rate, 7% BB rate, .345 xwOBA
    • Insight: Gomber’s struggles with hard contact and home runs make him a risky play against a potent Dodgers lineup.
    • Key Points:
      • High ERA
      • Struggles with home runs

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels

Overview:

  • Tobias Myers:
    • Key Stats: 3.76 ERA, 22% K rate, 9% BB rate, .338 xwOBA
    • Insight: Myers has been solid, but faces an Angels lineup that can be dangerous, especially at home. His ability to limit walks and induce ground balls will be key.
    • Key Points:
      • Effective ground ball pitcher
      • Needs to limit walks
  • Griffin Canning:
    • Key Stats: 4.49 ERA, 22% K rate, 7% BB rate, .350 xwOBA
    • Insight: Canning has been inconsistent, and the Brewers’ lineup can exploit his weaknesses. His ability to limit hard contact will be crucial.
    • Key Points:
      • Inconsistent performance
      • Struggles with hard contact

Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics

Overview:

  • Alec Marsh:
    • Key Stats: 4.71 ERA, 24% K rate, 10% BB rate, .333 xwOBA
    • Insight: Marsh has shown strikeout potential but struggles with control. The A’s lineup, though not potent, could take advantage of his walk issues.
    • Key Points:
      • High strikeout potential
      • Struggles with control
  • Hogan Harris:
    • Key Stats: 5.81 ERA, 21% K rate, 10% BB rate, .337 xwOBA
    • Insight: Harris has struggled significantly, making the Royals an interesting play. His high walk rate and home run susceptibility are major concerns.
    • Key Points:
      • High ERA
      • Struggles with walks and home runs

That’s the overview for today’s MLB DFS slate. Stay tuned for our next breakdown where we’ll dig into the top hitters and stacks. Happy betting!

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