MLB Preview Saturday 6/15/24

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS preview! We’ll break down all the games on today’s slate, focusing on pitching matchups and key insights to help you get ready for your DFS lineups. Let’s dive in!

Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins

Time: 2:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Target Field
Pitching Matchup: Joey Estes (RHP) vs. Bailey Ober (RHP)

• Joey Estes: Sporting a 5.36 ERA and a 20% strikeout rate, Estes has struggled with control (6% walk rate) and faces a tough Twins lineup that boasts a .327 wOBA against right-handers.
• Bailey Ober: Ober has been solid with a 3.97 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate. His consistent performance (3.98 xERA) makes him a reliable option against an Athletics team that has a .304 wOBA against right-handers.

Key Insights:

• Twins’ offense thrives against righties, making them the favorites.
• Ober’s consistency should lead to a strong performance against the Athletics.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs

Time: 2:20 PM EDT
Ballpark: Wrigley Field
Pitching Matchup: Andre Pallante (RHP) vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP)

• Andre Pallante: Pallante has a 4.79 ERA and a low 15% strikeout rate but benefits from a high ground ball rate (73%), which can limit damage in a hitter-friendly park.
• Shota Imanaga: Imanaga has a stellar 1.96 ERA and a 26% strikeout rate. His excellent control (4% walk rate) and elite performance make him a tough opponent for the Cardinals, who have a .311 wOBA against lefties.

Key Insights:

• Imanaga’s elite pitching stats make him a formidable opponent.
• Pallante’s ground ball tendencies could mitigate some risk in Wrigley Field.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Time: 3:07 PM EDT
Ballpark: Rogers Centre
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Carrasco (RHP) vs. Bowden Francis (RHP)

• Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco has struggled with a 6.31 ERA and a 17% strikeout rate. His high hard contact rate (34%) against a powerful Blue Jays lineup (.308 wOBA against righties) suggests a tough outing.
• Bowden Francis: Francis has a 3.86 ERA with a solid 24% strikeout rate. Despite a 5.14 xERA indicating potential regression, his command (7% walk rate) has kept him effective.

Key Insights:

• Carrasco’s struggles against a strong Blue Jays offense could lead to a high-scoring game.
• Francis’ strikeout ability might help keep the Guardians’ offense in check.

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals

Time: 4:05 PM EDT
Ballpark: Nationals Park
Pitching Matchup: Trevor Rogers (LHP) vs. DJ Herz (LHP)

• Trevor Rogers: Rogers has a 5.06 ERA and a 19% strikeout rate, with control issues (10% walk rate). The Nationals’ offense has a .297 wOBA against left-handers, which might help Rogers.
• DJ Herz: Herz has struggled with a 6.48 ERA and a 20% strikeout rate. His high walk rate (12%) and low ground ball rate (25%) pose challenges, especially against a Marlins team with a .289 wOBA against lefties.

Key Insights:

• Both pitchers’ control issues could lead to a higher-scoring game.
• Marlins’ ability to hit lefties gives them a slight edge.

Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants

Time: 4:05 PM EDT
Ballpark: Oracle Park
Pitching Matchup: Patrick Sandoval (LHP) vs. Keaton Winn (RHP)

• Patrick Sandoval: With a 4.48 ERA and a 21% strikeout rate, Sandoval has been solid. His xERA of 4.06 suggests better performance than his ERA. The Giants have a .292 wOBA against lefties.
• Keaton Winn: Winn has a 5.87 ERA and a 20% strikeout rate. His high hard contact rate (40%) and xERA of 5.24 indicate struggles. The Angels, with a .300 wOBA against righties, could exploit this.

Key Insights:

• Sandoval’s solid performance could limit the Giants’ offense.
• Winn’s struggles make the Angels a favorable matchup.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles

Time: 4:05 PM EDT
Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Pitching Matchup: Taijuan Walker (RHP) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)

• Taijuan Walker: Walker has a 4.58 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. His xERA of 5.78 suggests he’s been fortunate. The Orioles have a strong .330 wOBA against right-handers.
• Grayson Rodriguez: Rodriguez has a 3.98 ERA and a 26% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.53 and 13% swinging strike rate indicate dominance. The Phillies have a .308 wOBA against righties.

Key Insights:

• Rodriguez’s dominance and the Orioles’ strong hitting against right-handers favor Baltimore.
• Walker’s struggles could lead to a tough outing against a potent Orioles lineup.

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Time: 4:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Citi Field
Pitching Matchup: Adam Mazur (RHP) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP)

• Adam Mazur: Mazur has struggled with a 9.00 ERA and a 10% strikeout rate. His high walk rate (17%) and hard contact rate (23%) are concerning. The Mets have a .308 wOBA against righties.
• Jose Quintana: Quintana has a 4.37 ERA with a 17% strikeout rate. His xERA of 5.42 indicates potential regression. The Padres have a .346 wOBA against left-handers.

Key Insights:

• Quintana’s experience and the Padres’ strong hitting against lefties make this a balanced matchup.
• Mazur’s struggles could lead to a high-scoring game for the Mets.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Time: 4:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: American Family Field
Pitching Matchup: Andrew Abbott (LHP) vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP)

• Andrew Abbott: Abbott has been effective with a 3.63 ERA and a 23% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.43 and low walk rate (9%) indicate strong metrics. The Brewers have a .336 wOBA against lefties.
• Bryse Wilson: Wilson has a 3.27 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate. His xERA of 4.75 suggests regression. His high hard contact rate (36%) could be exploited by the Reds’ .308 wOBA against right-handers.

Key Insights:

• Abbott’s strong strikeout ability and control could limit the Brewers’ offense.
• Wilson’s potential regression and the Reds’ capability against right-handers make this a balanced matchup.

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

Time: 4:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Minute Maid Park
Pitching Matchup: Jack Flaherty (RHP) vs. Justin Verlander (RHP)

• Jack Flaherty: Flaherty has a 4.40 ERA and a 26% strikeout rate. His xERA of 2.60 indicates he’s been unlucky. The Astros have a .312 wOBA against right-handers.
• Justin Verlander: Verlander has a 3.41 ERA with a 22% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.76 and low walk rate (7%) highlight his excellence. The Tigers have a .309 wOBA against righties.

Key Insights:

• Flaherty’s potential for dominance makes this an intriguing matchup.
• Verlander’s experience and the Tigers’ struggles against right-handers favor the Astros.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves

Time: 4:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Truist Park
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Pepiot (RHP) vs. Charlie Morton (RHP)

• Ryan Pepiot: Pepiot has a 3.32 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate. His xERA of 2.99 and low walk rate (5%) underscore his potential. The Braves have a .307 wOBA against righties.
• Charlie Morton: Morton has a 3.78 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate. His xERA of 4.18 and higher walk rate (11%) indicate some control issues. The Rays have a .296 wOBA against right-handers.

Key Insights:

• Pepiot’s strong strikeout ability and control could challenge the Braves’ lineup.
• Morton’s experience and the Rays’ average performance against right-handers make this a balanced matchup.

Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners

Time: 7:15 PM EDT
Ballpark: T-Mobile Park
Pitching Matchup: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) vs. George Kirby (RHP)

• Nathan Eovaldi: Eovaldi has a 3.36 ERA and a 24% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.29 and a ground ball rate of 51% highlight his effectiveness. The Mariners have a .300 wOBA against righties.
• George Kirby: Kirby has a 3.49 ERA and a 23% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.36 and a low walk rate (2%) indicate excellent control. The Rangers have a .304 wOBA against righties.

Key Insights:

• Eovaldi’s ground ball rate and strikeout ability make him a tough matchup for the Mariners.
• Kirby’s elite control and the Rangers’ average performance against right-handers suggest a low-scoring game.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Time: 7:15 PM EDT
Ballpark: Fenway Park
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (LHP) vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP)

• Carlos Rodon: Rodon has a 4.68 ERA and a 23% strikeout rate. His xERA of 4.01 indicates he has been slightly better than his ERA suggests. The Red Sox have a .334 wOBA against lefties.
• Cooper Criswell: Criswell has a 4.78 ERA and a 20% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.66 suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky. The Yankees have a .345 wOBA against right-handers.

Key Insights:

• Rodon’s strikeout ability could be crucial against a Red Sox lineup that hits lefties well.
• Criswell’s underlying metrics suggest he could improve, but the Yankees’ powerful lineup poses a challenge.

Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Time: 9:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
Pitching Matchup: Seth Lugo (RHP) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)

• Seth Lugo: Lugo has a 3.11 ERA and a 22% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.84 and low walk rate (6%) indicate solid control. The Dodgers have a .337 wOBA against right-handers.
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Yamamoto has a 3.00 ERA and a 28% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.19 and high ground ball rate (48%) highlight his dominance. The Royals have a .319 wOBA against righties.

Key Insights:

• Lugo’s solid control and the Dodgers’ powerful lineup make this a challenging matchup for the Royals.
• Yamamoto’s dominance and the Royals’ struggles against right-handers favor the Dodgers.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies

Time: 9:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Coors Field
Pitching Matchup: Jared Jones (RHP) vs. Ty Blach (LHP)

• Jared Jones: Jones has a 3.27 ERA and a 26% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.53 and a high swinging strike rate (16%) indicate strong underlying metrics. The Rockies have a .303 wOBA against right-handers.
• Ty Blach: Blach has a 5.28 ERA and a 13% strikeout rate. His xERA of 5.24 and high hard contact rate (36%) make him vulnerable. The Pirates have a .283 wOBA against left-handers.

Key Insights:

• Jones’ strong strikeout ability and the Rockies’ average performance against right-handers favor the Pirates.
• Blach’s struggles and the Pirates’ capability to hit lefties suggest a potentially high-scoring game for Pittsburgh.

Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Time: 10:10 PM EDT
Ballpark: Chase Field
Pitching Matchup: Erick Fedde (RHP) vs. Tommy Henry (LHP)

• Erick Fedde: Fedde has a 3.10 ERA and a 23% strikeout rate. His xERA of 3.58 and high ground ball rate (48%) indicate effective pitching. The Diamondbacks have a .308 wOBA against right-handers.
• Tommy Henry: Henry has struggled with a 4.51 ERA and a 17% strikeout rate. His xERA of 6.08 and high hard contact rate (33%) suggest vulnerability. The White Sox have a .284 wOBA against left-handers.

Key Insights:

• Fedde’s effective pitching and the Diamondbacks’ average performance against right-handers favor the White Sox.
• Henry’s struggles and the White Sox’s weaknesses against lefties make this a balanced matchup with potential for both sides.

That wraps up the detailed pitching preview for today’s MLB DFS slate! Stay tuned for the Top Hitters and Top Stacks analysis coming later today. Good luck with your lineups!