MLB Preview Monday 6/17/24

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Preview! We’ll be diving into each matchup on today’s slate, focusing primarily on pitching, with key insights and statistics to help you get a comprehensive understanding of what to expect. Let’s jump in!

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:40 PM EDT – PNC Park

Pitching Matchup

• Cincinnati Reds: Carson Spiers (RHP)
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes (RHP)

Game Insights

Starting with the Reds and Pirates, we have an interesting pitching duel on tap. Carson Spiers takes the mound for Cincinnati. His ERA over the last two seasons is 4.18, not too shabby but his 19% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate suggest some inconsistency. What’s concerning is his high xERA of 3.48 and relatively low ground ball rate of 31%.

Paul Skenes is the Pirates’ ace tonight, boasting a stellar 2.43 ERA and an impressive 35% strikeout rate. His 5% walk rate and a 51% ground ball rate indicate he’s a pitcher who can dominate.

Key Points:

• Reds’ offense is inconsistent, .330 wOBA vs. LHP and .308 wOBA vs. RHP.
• Pirates’ balanced attack with a .312 wOBA vs. RHP.

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 PM EDT – Citizens Bank Park

Pitching Matchup

• San Diego Padres: Randy Vasquez (RHP)
• Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP)

Game Insights

Randy Vasquez’s high xERA of 5.93 and .377 xwOBA indicate trouble ahead, with an 18% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. Cristopher Sanchez is more reliable, sporting a 3.29 ERA, and a solid 58% ground ball rate which helps him limit damage effectively.

Key Points:

• Phillies’ potent offense with a .342 wOBA vs. LHP.
• Padres have a decent .295 wOBA vs. LHP but face a tough pitcher in Sanchez.

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins – 6:40 PM EDT – LoanDepot Park

Pitching Matchup

• St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (RHP)
• Miami Marlins: Braxton Garrett (LHP)

Game Insights

Sonny Gray’s numbers are fantastic with a 2.85 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate. His 47% ground ball rate shows his ability to induce weak contact. Braxton Garrett, on the other hand, has a higher ERA of 4.06 and allows a 40% hard contact rate, which could spell trouble.

Key Points:

• Cardinals’ offense .277 wOBA vs. LHP might struggle.
• Marlins’ weaker offense .262 wOBA vs. RHP gives Gray the edge.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 PM EDT – Rogers Centre

Pitching Matchup

• Boston Red Sox: Nick Pivetta (RHP)
• Toronto Blue Jays: Yusei Kikuchi (LHP)

Game Insights

Nick Pivetta’s high strikeout rate of 31% is a key strength, but his 8% walk rate can be problematic. Yusei Kikuchi’s 3.67 ERA and balanced peripherals (25% K rate, 41% GB rate) make him a tough opponent.

Key Points:

• Red Sox’s offense .324 wOBA vs. LHP presents a challenge for Kikuchi.
• Blue Jays’ offense .291 wOBA vs. RHP, facing Pivetta’s strikeout ability.

Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves – 7:20 PM EDT – Truist Park

Pitching Matchup

• Detroit Tigers: Reese Olson (RHP)
• Atlanta Braves: Max Fried (LHP)

Game Insights

Reese Olson’s ERA of 3.86 and a 47% ground ball rate show he can manage games well. Max Fried is a top-tier pitcher with a 2.88 ERA and a dominant 59% ground ball rate, making him a formidable opponent.

Key Points:

• Tigers’ offense .304 wOBA vs. LHP might struggle against Fried.
• Braves’ strong offense .320 wOBA vs. RHP with the advantage.

New York Mets at Texas Rangers – 8:05 PM EDT – Globe Life Field

Pitching Matchup

• New York Mets: David Peterson (LHP)
• Texas Rangers: Jon Gray (RHP)

Game Insights

David Peterson has a 4.93 ERA and control issues with a 10% walk rate. Jon Gray’s ERA of 3.56 and solid strikeout rate of 22% make him more reliable.

Key Points:

• Mets’ strong offense .349 wOBA vs. RHP.
• Rangers’ balanced attack .300 wOBA vs. LHP, favorable matchup.

San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM EDT – Wrigley Field

Pitching Matchup

• San Francisco Giants: Jordan Hicks (RHP)
• Chicago Cubs: Javier Assad (RHP)

Game Insights

Jordan Hicks’ 3.15 ERA and 25% strikeout rate are strong, though his 10% walk rate is a concern. Javier Assad’s 2.95 ERA might be misleading given his higher xERA of 4.06.

Key Points:

• Giants’ offense .344 wOBA vs. RHP, posing a challenge.
• Cubs’ offense .305 wOBA vs. RHP, facing Hicks’ high strikeout rate.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies – 8:40 PM EDT – Coors Field

Pitching Matchup

• Los Angeles Dodgers: James Paxton (LHP)
• Colorado Rockies: Cal Quantrill (RHP)

Game Insights

James Paxton’s 4.28 ERA and 5.04 xERA show some volatility. Cal Quantrill’s low strikeout rate of 15% and high hard contact rate (32%) could be a recipe for disaster at Coors Field.

Key Points:

• Dodgers’ elite offense .351 wOBA vs. RHP, strong advantage.
• Rockies’ strong offense .337 wOBA vs. LHP, could challenge Paxton.

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 PM EDT – Angel Stadium

Pitching Matchup

• Milwaukee Brewers: Carlos Rodriguez (RHP)
• Los Angeles Angels: Jose Soriano (RHP)

Game Insights

Carlos Rodriguez’s 4.91 ERA and 6.48 xERA indicate he’s been lucky. Jose Soriano’s 3.54 ERA and strong peripherals (24% K rate, 57% GB rate) give him an edge.

Key Points:

• Brewers’ offense .306 wOBA vs. RHP, might struggle against Soriano.
• Angels’ offense .366 wOBA vs. RHP, advantage against Rodriguez.

That wraps up our pitching-focused MLB DFS Preview for today’s slate. Stay tuned for our Top Hitters and Top Stacks article coming later today. Let’s crush it on DFS!