MLB Preview Monday 5/20/24

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS preview, focusing primarily on pitching matchups. Let’s dive into the detailed breakdown of each game on today’s slate.

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San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves – 12:20 PM EDT – Truist Park

Pitching Matchup

• San Diego Padres: Dylan Cease (RHP)
  • xERA: 2.65, K%: 28%, ERA: 4.07
• Atlanta Braves: Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)
  • xERA: 3.72, K%: 28%, ERA: 2.54

Game Insights

• Dylan Cease‘s xERA of 2.65 indicates that he’s pitched better than his 4.07 ERA shows, thanks to his strong strikeout ability (28% K%).
• Reynaldo Lopez has been effective with a 2.54 ERA but his xERA of 3.72 suggests some regression might be due.
• Both pitchers have solid strikeout rates (28%) which could lead to a lower-scoring game.

Key Points:

• Watch for Cease’s ability to limit hard contact (33% HC%).
• Lopez’s slightly higher walk rate (11%) might give Padres’ hitters opportunities.

Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays – 3:07 PM EDT – Rogers Centre

Pitching Matchup

• Chicago White Sox: Erick Fedde (RHP)
  • xERA: 3.44, K%: 24%, ERA: 2.6
• Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Berrios (RHP)
  • xERA: 4.6, K%: 23%, ERA: 3.47

Game Insights

• Erick Fedde has been performing well with a 2.6 ERA and a respectable 3.44 xERA.
• Jose Berrios’ xERA of 4.6 indicates he’s been overperforming relative to his actual ERA of 3.47.
• Berrios’ groundball rate of 43% could be crucial against the White Sox.

Key Points:

• Fedde’s solid strikeout ability makes him a viable option.
• Berrios has been effective, but watch out for his potential regression.

New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians – 6:10 PM EDT – Progressive Field

Pitching Matchup

• New York Mets: Tylor Megill (RHP)
  • xERA: 4.36, K%: 19%, ERA: 4.63
• Cleveland Guardians: Ben Lively (RHP)
  • xERA: 4.21, K%: 21%, ERA: 4.76

Game Insights

• Tylor Megill and Ben Lively both have high xERAs, suggesting struggles on the mound.
• The Mets’ offense against right-handers (.306 wOBA) and the Guardians’ offense (.294 wOBA) could influence the game.

Key Points:

• Both pitchers are risky options given their inconsistencies.
• Look for hitters who can exploit these pitching matchups.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins – 6:40 PM EDT – LoanDepot Park

Pitching Matchup

• Milwaukee Brewers: Joe Ross (RHP)
  • xERA: 4.12, K%: 19%, ERA: 4.61
• Miami Marlins: Ryan Weathers (LHP)
  • xERA: 4.5, K%: 17%, ERA: 5.28

Game Insights

• Joe Ross has shown slight improvement over his actual ERA.
• Ryan Weathers has a high ERA of 5.28 and a low strikeout rate, making him vulnerable.

Key Points:

• Brewers’ hitters could capitalize on Weathers’ weaknesses.
• Ross could be a decent option but remains risky.

Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals – 6:45 PM EDT – Nationals Park

Pitching Matchup

• Minnesota Twins: Pablo Lopez (RHP)
  • xERA: 2.88, K%: 30%, ERA: 3.71
• Washington Nationals: Mitchell Parker (LHP)
  • xERA: 3.82, K%: 20%, ERA: 3.09

Game Insights

• Pablo Lopez has been a standout with an xERA of 2.88 and a high strikeout rate (30%).
• Mitchell Parker, while effective, has a lower strikeout rate and a higher xERA.

Key Points:

• Lopez is a strong option given his strikeout potential.
• Twins’ offense against left-handers (.336 wOBA) could exploit Parker.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays – 6:50 PM EDT – Tropicana Field

Pitching Matchup

• Boston Red Sox: Tanner Houck (RHP)
  • xERA: 3.39, K%: 22%, ERA: 4.09
• Tampa Bay Rays: Taj Bradley (RHP)
  • xERA: 7.25, K%: 28%, ERA: 5.37

Game Insights

• Tanner Houck has a respectable xERA and a good groundball rate (54%).
• Taj Bradley’s high xERA of 7.25 indicates significant struggles.

Key Points:

• Houck’s consistency makes him a safer play.
• Red Sox hitters could exploit Bradley’s struggles.

Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees – 7:05 PM EDT – Yankee Stadium

Pitching Matchup

• Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert (RHP)
  • xERA: 3.11, K%: 25%, ERA: 3.57
• New York Yankees: Marcus Stroman (RHP)
  • xERA: 4.75, K%: 21%, ERA: 3.91

Game Insights

• Logan Gilbert has been solid with a good xERA and strikeout rate.
• Marcus Stroman’s high xERA suggests potential regression despite his lower ERA.

Key Points:

• Gilbert’s strikeout potential makes him appealing.
• Be cautious with Stroman due to his higher xERA.

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals – 7:40 PM EDT – Kauffman Stadium

Pitching Matchup

• Detroit Tigers: Reese Olson (RHP)
  • xERA: 3.32, K%: 24%, ERA: 3.4
• Kansas City Royals: Michael Wacha (RHP)
  • xERA: 3.67, K%: 22%, ERA: 3.62

Game Insights

• Reese Olson has a solid xERA and decent strikeout rate.
• Michael Wacha has been effective, though his xERA suggests slight regression.

Key Points:

• Olson’s consistency makes him a strong option.
• Wacha’s groundball rate (35%) could help limit damage.

Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals – 7:45 PM EDT – Busch Stadium

Pitching Matchup

• Baltimore Orioles: Dean Kremer (RHP)
  • xERA: 5.24, K%: 22%, ERA: 4.03
• St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (RHP)
  • xERA: 3.36, K%: 26%, ERA: 2.84

Game Insights

• Dean Kremer’s high xERA suggests he’s been fortunate to maintain a 4.03 ERA.
• Sonny Gray has been dominant with a 2.84 ERA and solid xERA.

Key Points:

• Gray is a top option given his consistency and strikeout ability.
• Be cautious with Kremer due to his high xERA.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros – 8:10 PM EDT – Minute Maid Park

Pitching Matchup

• Los Angeles Angels: Reid Detmers (LHP)
  • xERA: 3.46, K%: 26%, ERA: 4.66
• Houston Astros: Framber Valdez (LHP)
  • xERA: 3.56, K%: 24%, ERA: 3.48

Game Insights

• Reid Detmers has shown strikeout ability but has struggled with consistency.
• Framber Valdez is a groundball specialist (55%) with a solid xERA.

Key Points:

• Valdez is a strong play given his consistency and groundball rate.
• Be cautious with Detmers due to his volatility.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 PM EDT – Dodger Stadium

Pitching Matchup

• Arizona Diamondbacks: Joe Mantiply (LHP)
  • xERA: 3.82, K%: 19%, ERA: 4.15
• Los Angeles Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)
  • xERA: 3.44, K%: 28%, ERA: 3.21

Game Insights

• Joe Mantiply has been average with a mid-tier xERA and low strikeout rate.
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been impressive with a low xERA and high strikeout rate.

Key Points:

• Yamamoto is a top option given his strikeout potential and consistency.
• Avoid Mantiply given the tough matchup.

That’s your comprehensive look at today’s MLB DFS slate. Stay tuned for our hitter and stack previews later today.

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