1H MLB Player Performance Double Betting Stats: How to Use PPDs to Reduce Juice on Heavy Favorites

The second half of the baseball season starts tomorrow. One of the markets we have covered in this column has been Player Performance Doubles, or PPDs.

We have seen them at the peaks, at the valleys, and all over. In fact, until July, this market was working for me at well over 60%. It then dropped down more to a baseline, but still a profitable rate.

Let’s talk about them.

Why is this a market I found a lot of early success with? Why did I use this market? Well, there is value in this market. So far in the MLB season, there are 23 teams with a 50% or higher record as favorites. 14 of those teams are winning at a 60% rate or higher as favorites. 

These are great numbers Brian, but that doesn’t mean anything for PPDs, just bet the run line. 

Thank you imaginary voice I added to this article, that is a great point! However, a quick google search to find the numbers will show you that only five teams have covered their run line at 50% or higher as favorites. There are only three teams above 50%, with none being at 60%.

That is where PPDs can be valuable. Let’s take one from last week as an example. Kyle Wright against the Nationals. The Braves were -240 favorites, with the run line hovering around -1.5 at -110. The Braves won 5-4, so if you laid -240 juice you had a win. However, is there really long-term value in -240 favorites? -240 means to break even you would need a 71% win rate.

The Braves on the season have won 59.6% of their games. To their credit, they have won 67% as favorites. Although, neither of those catches up to that 71% win rate needed long-term. As I said, the team won by one, so the run line lost. On the season the Braves are 48-46 on their run lines and 36-37 on the run line as favorites. 

Here comes the PPD value. Yes, Player Performance Doubles are parlays. However, the starting pitcher’s value to the team winning is highly correlated. In 18 starts the Braves are 13-5 when Wright pitches.

In 16 of those 18 starts, Wright has 4+ strikeouts. 88.9% on the Ks implies a -800 fair odds. A -800 leg parlayed with a -240 leg (the moneyline) is an implied probability of winning at 62.75%.

In this case, a Wright 4 strikeout and win PPD on DraftKings could be had at -120 when the lines opened. A -120 line needs a 54.5% win rate to break even. So, this correlated PPD at an implied probability of 62.75% holds a lot of value.

They are not all cut and dry or made in the same way. Some hold more value than others, and some might not hold any. The point is that this market opens the door to creating and finding a lot of value. 

For instance, look at the leading team in the MLB, the Yankees. They are sitting at 64-28 for the year. Yet, they are just 45-47 on their run lines for the season. Out of their 64 wins, 13 were decided by one run.

That right there brings a 64-28 moneyline record to 51-41 on the run lines. But when you add in all the games where they are -2.5, it brings them down to below 50% on the run lines. 

The PPD market opens up so many ways to reduce heavy favorites in a correlated way. Especially when only two teams are profitable on their run lines as favorites to this point. 

Just some food for thought as we enter into the second half, thank you for reading.