MLB DFS Preview Early Slates Wednesday 4/24/24

Today’s MLB slate is split into two distinct segments: the Early slate with three games and the Turbo slate featuring four games. Here’s a breakdown focusing primarily on the pitching duels and how they impact the overall game dynamics for DFS enthusiasts.

Early Slate

• Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals

  • Time/Ballpark: 1:15 PM EDT, Busch Stadium
  • Pitching Matchup: Jordan Montgomery (LHP) vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP)
  • Insights:
    • Montgomery brings a solid ERA of 3.14 and a low xWOBA of .270, indicating his ability to limit opponent quality of contact.
    • Gibson, despite a higher ERA of 4.77 and xERA of 6.35, maintains a decent ground ball rate of 49%, which might help mitigate damage at Busch Stadium.
    • Game Dynamics: Expect a game tilted towards pitcher effectiveness given Montgomery’s control and Gibson’s ground ball tendencies. However, both teams have potential for rallies given the pitchers’ varying seasonal performances.

• New York Mets at San Francisco Giants

  • Time/Ballpark: 3:45 PM EDT, Oracle Park
  • Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea (LHP) vs. Blake Snell (LHP)
  • Insights:
    • Manaea boasts a strong strikeout rate of 26% but has been prone to giving up runs with a xERA of 5.74.
    • Snell counters with an impressive ERA of 2.82 and even higher K% at 31%, though his walk rate of 13% could be a concern.
    • Game Dynamics: This pitcher’s duel features high strikeout potential. The matchup could swing on which pitcher better controls the zone, particularly Snell’s ability to manage walks.

• Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels

  • Time/Ballpark: 4:07 PM EDT, Angel Stadium
  • Pitching Matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP) vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP)
  • Insights:
    • Kremer and Anderson both show vulnerabilities, with ERAs over 4.00 and high xWOBA figures, suggesting they can be hit.
    • Anderson’s issues with walks (BB% of 10%) could play into the Orioles’ hands, who have shown some power against lefties.
    • Game Dynamics: High scoring potential here as both pitchers could struggle, making this game particularly volatile for DFS.

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Turbo Slate

• Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds

  • Time/Ballpark: 6:40 PM EDT, Great American Ball Park
  • Pitching Matchup: Spencer Turnbull (RHP) vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP)
  • Insights:
    • Turnbull shows inconsistency with an ERA near 4.75, facing a Reds lineup that can exploit his high xWOBA allowed (.353).
    • Lodolo shines with a 30% K-rate and a formidable SIERA of 3.13, suggesting he could dominate a Phillies lineup that has strikeout tendencies.
    • Game Dynamics: Lodolo’s strikeout ability makes him a key DFS player, while Turnbull’s struggles could lead to runs on the Reds’ side.

• Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Time/Ballpark: 6:40 PM EDT, PNC Park
  • Pitching Matchup: Bryse Wilson (RHP) vs. Josh Fleming (LHP)
  • Insights:
    • Wilson’s higher SIERA of 4.14 against Fleming’s 4.41 indicates a potentially tighter contest, but both are susceptible to damage.
    • Fleming’s excellent ground ball rate (61%) could be pivotal in controlling the Brewers’ lineup.
    • Game Dynamics: A matchup that could go either way, depending on which pitcher manages to induce more ground balls and limit walks.

• Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals

  • Time/Ballpark: 6:45 PM EDT, Nationals Park
  • Pitching Matchup: Landon Knack (RHP) vs. Jake Irvin (RHP)
  • Insights:
    • Knack, with a solid ERA of 3.60 and a low BB%, presents a strong case against a weaker Nationals lineup.
    • Irvin, however, struggles with a 4.38 ERA and higher xWOBA allowed (.322), potentially giving an edge to the Dodgers’ heavy hitters.
    • Game Dynamics: Expect the Dodgers to leverage their lineup strength against Irvin’s vulnerabilities, making them a favorite in DFS circles.

• Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays

  • Time/Ballpark: 6:50 PM EDT, Tropicana Field
  • Pitching Matchup: Jack Flaherty (RHP) vs. Shawn Armstrong (RHP)
  • Insights:
    • Flaherty’s high ERA of 4.91 against Armstrong’s surprisingly low 1.86 points to a potential mismatch.
    • Armstrong’s strong season stats, including a low xWOBA of .288, suggest he could handle the Tigers’ lineup.
    • Game Dynamics: Armstrong’s form makes the Rays a solid defensive play, while Flaherty will need to manage Rays hitters who can exploit his inconsistencies.

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This detailed preview provides strategic insights into each game’s pitching dynamics and how they may influence the overall game outcomes for today’s MLB DFS slate. Look to leverage pitchers with high K-potentials and target weaker pitchers in your DFS lineups for maximum scoring opportunities.