MLB Best Bets Wednesday 6/12/24

Welcome to today’s MLB Best Bets! We’re diving into the top plays for today’s slate, providing you with key insights and in-depth analysis to help you make informed betting decisions. Let’s get into our top 5 MLB best bets for today:

1. San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros – 3:45 PM EDT – Oracle Park

Suggested Bet: San Francisco Giants -110

Key Insights:

• Logan Webb (SFG):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.339 xwOBA, 4.63 xERA, 3.22 SIERA, 3.16 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 22% K%, 4% BB%, 9% SS%, 60% GB%, 32% HC%
  • Webb is a groundball specialist with elite command, making him a tough opponent for any lineup. His ability to limit walks and induce grounders makes him a strong play against the Astros.
• Framber Valdez (HOU):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.309 xwOBA, 3.77 xERA, 3.64 SIERA, 3.47 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 24% K%, 7% BB%, 12% SS%, 57% GB%, 38% HC%
  • Valdez is also a groundball machine, but the Giants’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.341 against left-handed pitching, which presents a challenge for Valdez.
• Game Factors:
  • The Giants are 18-14 at home, while the Astros struggle on the road with an 11-19 record. The combination of Webb’s strong pitching and home-field advantage gives the Giants the edge in this matchup.

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2. Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds – 7:10 PM EDT – Great American Ball Park

Suggested Bet: Cleveland Guardians +102

Key Insights:

• Tanner Bibee (CLE):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.315 xwOBA, 3.93 xERA, 3.94 SIERA, 3.23 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 25% K%, 7% BB%, 12% SS%, 37% GB%, 29% HC%
  • Bibee has been a strong performer with a good strikeout rate and solid command. His ability to limit hard contact makes him a strong play against the Reds.
• Nick Lodolo (CIN):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.278 xwOBA, 3.01 xERA, 3.36 SIERA, 4.26 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 27% K%, 6% BB%, 13% SS%, 44% GB%, 30% HC%
  • Lodolo has been impressive, but the Guardians’ lineup has a wOBA of 0.338 against left-handed pitching, presenting a challenge for him.
• Game Factors:
  • The Guardians are 21-14 on the road, and their offense has been performing well. Bibee’s strong performance and the Guardians’ ability to hit left-handed pitching make them a solid bet.

3. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:10 PM EDT – Fenway Park

Suggested Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -120

Key Insights:

• Cristopher Sanchez (PHI):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.306 xwOBA, 3.69 xERA, 3.34 SIERA, 3.15 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 23% K%, 6% BB%, 11% SS%, 59% GB%, 33% HC%
  • Sanchez has been a solid performer with a good strikeout rate and excellent groundball rate, making him a strong option against the Red Sox.
• Nick Pivetta (BOS):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.300 xwOBA, 3.54 xERA, 3.24 SIERA, 3.89 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 31% K%, 8% BB%, 13% SS%, 36% GB%, 36% HC%
  • Pivetta has been impressive, but his low groundball rate and tendency to allow hard contact could be exploited by the Phillies.
• Game Factors:
  • The Phillies have a wOBA of 0.345 against right-handed pitching, suggesting they can take advantage of Pivetta’s weaknesses. Their strong offense and Sanchez’s performance make them a favorable bet.

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4. New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals – 8:10 PM EDT – Kauffman Stadium

Suggested Bet: New York Yankees (Odds Pending)

Key Insights:

• Cody Poteet (NYY):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.365 xwOBA, 5.49 xERA, 4.17 SIERA, 1.72 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 18% K%, 7% BB%, 7% SS%, 44% GB%, 22% HC%
  • Poteet has shown potential despite his high xERA. His ability to limit hard contact makes him a decent option against the Royals.
• Daniel Lynch (KCR):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.334 xwOBA, 4.47 xERA, 5.15 SIERA, 4.87 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 16% K%, 8% BB%, 11% SS%, 38% GB%, 34% HC%
  • Lynch has struggled with consistency and command, making him vulnerable to the Yankees’ powerful lineup.
• Game Factors:
  • The Yankees’ offense is one of the best in the majors, and they have a wOBA of 0.315 against left-handed pitching. Expect them to capitalize on Lynch’s weaknesses and secure a win.

5. Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 PM EDT – Chase Field

Suggested Bet: Los Angeles Angels +122

Key Insights:

• Jose Soriano (LAA):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.313 xwOBA, 3.87 xERA, 3.83 SIERA, 3.64 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 24% K%, 11% BB%, 12% SS%, 57% GB%, 32% HC%
  • Soriano has been solid, boasting a good strikeout rate and excellent groundball rate. His ability to limit walks and induce groundballs makes him a reliable option against the Diamondbacks.
• Slade Cecconi (ARI):
  • 2024 Expected Stats: 0.329 xwOBA, 4.33 xERA, 4.51 SIERA, 5.14 ERA
  • Last 2 Seasons Combined: 17% K%, 5% BB%, 8% SS%, 34% GB%, 35% HC%
  • Cecconi has struggled with a high ERA and low strikeout rate, making him vulnerable to the Angels’ lineup.
• Game Factors:
  • The Angels have a wOBA of 0.369 against right-handed pitching, suggesting they can take advantage of Cecconi’s weaknesses. Soriano’s solid performance and the Angels’ offensive capabilities make them a strong bet.

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These top 5 bets offer a combination of strong pitching matchups and favorable offensive conditions. Make sure to consider these insights when placing your bets today. Good luck and happy betting!

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