MLB Best Bets Tuesday 5/28/24

Welcome to today’s MLB Best Bets! We’ve got a full slate of games, and I’ve analyzed the key matchups to bring you the top five best bets for today. Let’s dive into each matchup, breaking down why these bets stand out, and providing you with the key insights to make informed decisions.

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1. Max Fried (ATL) vs. Washington Nationals

Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5

Key Insights:

• Max Fried’s Dominance: Fried has been a standout pitcher with an xERA of 3.16 and a ground ball rate of 61%. His ability to limit hard contact (24%) and strike out batters (23%) makes him a formidable opponent.
• Washington’s Struggles: The Nationals have a team wOBA of .273 against left-handers, and Fried’s control should keep them in check.
• Atlanta’s Offense: Despite recent struggles, the Braves have one of the most potent offenses in MLB, and they should provide Fried with ample run support.

Injury Situation: Atlanta’s offense is relatively healthy, which bolsters their chances of covering the spread.

2. Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. Chicago Cubs

Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-146)

Key Insights:

• Peralta’s Strikeout Ability: With a K% of 31% and an xERA of 3.83, Peralta is a reliable pitcher who can dominate the Cubs’ lineup. His ability to induce ground balls (41%) and limit hard contact (30%) adds to his value.
• Cubs’ Offensive Woes: The Cubs are struggling offensively, batting .288 as a team and ranked 16th in on-base percentage. Their inconsistency makes them a prime target for Peralta.
• Home Advantage: The Brewers are solid at home with a 13-9 record, compared to the Cubs’ 12-16 road record.

Injury Situation: No significant injuries affecting Peralta or key Brewers hitters.

3. Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. Chicago White Sox

Bet: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Key Insights:

• Gausman’s Potential: Despite a high xERA of 5.4, Gausman’s underlying metrics like a 29% strikeout rate and decent ERA of 3.48 indicate he can deliver a strong performance against a weak White Sox lineup.
• Clevinger’s Struggles: Mike Clevinger has been a liability for the White Sox, with an xERA of 7.13 and a tendency to give up hard contact (29%). This bodes well for Toronto’s hitters.
• Toronto’s Offensive Upside: The Blue Jays are improving offensively, and facing Clevinger gives them an opportunity to capitalize.

Injury Situation: The Blue Jays are healthy, and their lineup is poised to take advantage of Clevinger’s weaknesses.

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4. Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Bet: New York Yankees Moneyline (-170)

Key Insights:

• Cortes’ Consistency: With an xERA of 2.85 and a solid strikeout rate of 25%, Cortes has been a dependable pitcher. His ability to limit hard contact (29%) makes him a strong play against the Angels.
• Yankees’ Offensive Strength: The Yankees boast one of the best offenses in MLB, ranking third in runs scored and first in on-base and slugging percentages.
• Angels’ Struggles: Griffin Canning’s xERA of 5.06 and his tendency to allow home runs make this a favorable matchup for the Yankees.

Injury Situation: The Yankees are in good shape health-wise, enhancing their chances against the struggling Angels.

5. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) vs. San Diego Padres

Bet: Under 7.5 Runs

Key Insights:

• Luzardo’s Hot Streak: Luzardo has been excellent recently, with a K% of 28% and strong outings against the Mets and Brewers, indicating he can keep the Padres’ offense in check.
• Waldron’s Competence: Matt Waldron has been solid, with recent performances showing he can limit runs effectively.
• Offensive Struggles: Both teams have been inconsistent offensively, with the Marlins especially struggling to score. This sets up a low-scoring game.

Injury Situation: No significant injuries impacting the starting pitchers or key offensive players, supporting the under bet.

By leveraging the insights and statistics provided, you can maximize your betting and fantasy picks today. Don’t forget to use tools like Oddsjam to identify the most reliable bets quickly. Let’s hope for a profitable day on the diamond!

Maximize your betting and fantasy picks with Oddsjam Oddsjam, designed to help you quickly identify the most reliable bets in today’s games. Good luck!