MLB Best Bets Tuesday 10/8/24

Welcome to today’s edition of MLB Best Bets! With the MLB playoffs in full swing, we’re diving deep into each game, breaking down key matchups, and highlighting our top bets for today’s slate.

I’ll walk you through the insights and explain why each bet makes sense, so you’re not just blindly following a pick but understanding the rationale behind it. Let’s get into it!

Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

• Suggested Bet: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Bases (-160 at BetMGM)
  
• Analysis:This matchup features two strong pitchers: Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Sean Manaea for the Mets. Both teams have struggled against the opposing pitching splits:
  • Mets vs. Righties: Dead last in batting average over the last 30 days against right-handed pitchers.Phillies vs. Lefties: Offensive production has dipped compared to facing right-handers.
  With the starters expected to limit scoring in the first five innings, I’m leaning towards a low-scoring start. However, the standout value lies in Bryce Harper’s prop:
  • Harper has a solid history against Manaea, hitting .300 against him with 7 total bases in just 10 plate appearances.Manaea’s numbers against left-handed hitters are not encouraging, with his ERA jumping over 50 points when facing lefties.Harper’s approach against sinkers (418 wOBA) matches up perfectly against Manaea, who throws a heavy dose of that pitch.
• Why this bet? At -160 on BetMGM (compared to -180 on other books), it offers great value. Harper just needs a single hit to cash in, making this an ideal player prop for today.

Game 2: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

• Suggested Bet: Dodgers Moneyline (+130)
  
• Analysis:This game pits two top pitchers against each other: Michael King for the Padres and Walker Buehler for the Dodgers. Here’s how they stack up:
  • Michael King: King has been dominant in his recent outings, allowing zero earned runs in his last start against the Dodgers.Walker Buehler: The right-hander has been solid, but his recent numbers against the Padres are less impressive compared to King’s track record.
  Despite King’s hot streak, the Dodgers’ offense is a force to be reckoned with, especially against right-handed pitching:
  • Dodgers rank 4th in runs above average against fastballs, one of King’s primary pitches.They also lead the league against sinkers, which King relies on heavily.
• Why this bet? With the Dodgers priced at +130, the value is too good to pass up. This is a classic case of a 50/50 matchup where the underdog offers better odds. The Dodgers have the firepower to overcome King and pull off the upset.

Final Thoughts

That wraps up today’s edition of MLB Best Bets! Whether you’re looking for player props, team totals, or moneyline plays, these insights should help you make an informed decision for today’s slate.

Remember, it’s not just about picking winners—it’s about finding value in the odds and making smart bets.

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Good luck on the diamond! Let’s cash some tickets!