MLB Best Bets Thursday 5/16/24

Welcome to today’s MLB Best Bets breakdown! In this article, we’ll dive into the top 5 MLB bets for today’s slate. We’ll give key insights and elaborate on each matchup, explaining why each player is a top pick for today. Additionally, we’ll touch on any injury situations that might affect these picks.

Let’s get into it!

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1. Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Bet: Phillies First Five Innings -0.5

• Insights:
  • Phillies have been strong against left-handed pitching at home.
  • Jose Quintana (LHP, Mets) has struggled significantly with a 6.2 xERA and a .386 xwOBA.
  • Phillies hitters like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto thrive against lefties.

Key Points:

• Quintana’s Struggles: High xERA and xwOBA indicate vulnerability.
• Phillies’ Power: Key hitters show strong splits against left-handed pitching.
• First Five Strategy: Focus on Quintana’s early-game struggles.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Bet: Dodgers Moneyline

• Insights:
  • Tyler Glasnow (RHP, Dodgers) has been dominant with a 34.1% K rate against right-handed batters and a .279 xwOBA.
  • Reds’ Nick Martinez has a 3.67 xERA but has shown inconsistency.

Key Points:

• Glasnow’s Dominance: High strikeout rate and low xwOBA against righties.
• Dodgers’ Offense: Consistent power and contact hitters like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
• Reds’ Struggles: Cincinnati’s offensive inconsistency supports the Dodgers’ moneyline bet.

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3. Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics

Bet: Astros Moneyline

• Insights:
  • Cristian Javier (RHP, Astros) has strong numbers against the Athletics’ lineup with a .290 xwOBA and solid strikeout rates.
  • Joey Estes (RHP, Athletics) is inexperienced with only one start this season and a .324 xwOBA.

Key Points:

• Javier’s Edge: Proven track record against current Athletics hitters.
• Astros’ Lineup: Powerful hitters like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.
• Estes’ Inexperience: Potential for struggle against a potent Astros lineup.

4. Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Bet: Pirates Moneyline

• Insights:
  • Jared Jones (RHP, Pirates) has shown promise with a 17.49 DK points average and solid strikeout rates.
  • Justin Steele (LHP, Cubs) struggled in his last outing against the Pirates, giving up six earned runs.

Key Points:

• Jones’ Potential: Strong performance in recent starts.
• Steele’s Struggles: Recent poor performance against the Pirates.
• Weather Conditions: Humid and windy, favoring hitters and increasing the potential for runs.

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5. Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Bet: Red Sox Moneyline

• Insights:
  • Cooper Criswell (RHP, Red Sox) has been effective with a 24.8% K rate in his last six starts.
  • Zack Littell (RHP, Rays) has a higher xERA and has struggled more against right-handed hitters.

Key Points:

• Criswell’s Consistency: Strong recent performances and K rate.
• Littell’s Vulnerabilities: Higher xERA and struggles against righties.
• Bullpen Differences: Red Sox’s bullpen has been more reliable and less taxed recently.

Summary

Today’s MLB slate offers several strong betting opportunities. The Phillies, Dodgers, and Astros provide solid options due to their favorable pitching matchups and offensive firepower. Additionally, the Pirates and Red Sox present value bets based on recent performances and matchups. Use these insights to make informed bets and maximize your chances of winning.

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Good luck, and happy betting!