MLB Best Bets Friday 6/14/24

Dive into today’s MLB slate with confidence. Here are the top 5 best bets for today, complete with key insights and detailed explanations. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just looking for some smart picks, this guide will help you make informed decisions.

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1. Cubs First Five Moneyline

Teams: Cardinals @ Cubs – 2:20 PM ET – Wrigley Field Pitching Matchup:

• Kyle Gibson (STL): Struggles against lefties, .351 xwOBA.
• Jordan Wicks (CHC): Decent control against righties, .308 xwOBA.

Suggested Bet: Cubs First Five Moneyline

Key Insights:

• Kyle Gibson has struggled significantly against left-handed hitters, which could be a major factor considering the left-handed power in the Cubs lineup like Mike Tauchman and Cody Bellinger.
• Jordan Wicks has been reliable against righties, which aligns well against the Cardinals’ lineup.
• St. Louis’ bullpen is taxed, giving an edge to the Cubs in the first five innings.
• The weather conditions are favorable, with mild temperatures and no precipitation expected, which is ideal for the Cubs’ hitters to capitalize early.

2. Yankees Over 2.5 Runs in the First Five Innings

Teams: Yankees @ Red Sox – 6:30 PM ET – Fenway Park Pitching Matchup:

• Luis Gil (NYY): High strikeout potential, struggles with control.
• Brayan Bello (BOS): Solid but inconsistent, vulnerable against left-handed power.

Suggested Bet: Yankees Over 2.5 Runs in the First Five Innings

Key Insights:

• Luis Gil’s high strikeout rates are impressive, but his control issues could give the Red Sox opportunities to score early.
• The Red Sox lineup, featuring Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran, can exploit Gil’s control issues.
• Bello’s vulnerability against left-handed power is concerning with hitters like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup.
• The weather forecast shows mild conditions with some precipitation, which might favor hitters.

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3. Marlins Moneyline

Teams: Marlins @ Nationals – 6:45 PM ET – Nationals Park Pitching Matchup:

• Max Meyer (MIA): Promising strikeout potential, solid control.
• MacKenzie Gore (WAS): High strikeout rate but struggles with control, especially against lefties.

Suggested Bet: Marlins Moneyline

Key Insights:

• Max Meyer’s ability to limit left-handed hitters could neutralize the Nationals’ key threats.
• MacKenzie Gore’s control issues against left-handed hitters could be problematic against a disciplined Marlins lineup.
• Despite the Nationals being favored, Meyer’s potential and the Marlins’ recent form make them an appealing underdog pick.
• Weather conditions are stable, with warm temperatures and minimal precipitation expected.

4. Phillies Moneyline

Teams: Phillies @ Orioles – 7:05 PM ET – Oriole Park at Camden Yards Pitching Matchup:

• Ranger Suarez (PHI): Strong against lefties and righties, good control.
• Kyle Bradish (BAL): Struggles at home, vulnerable against left-handed power.

Suggested Bet: Phillies Moneyline

Key Insights:

• Ranger Suarez’s impressive control and ability to handle both lefties and righties give the Phillies a pitching edge.
• Kyle Bradish’s home struggles and vulnerability against left-handed power hitters like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber make the Phillies a strong pick.
• The Orioles’ recent taxing of their bullpen gives the Phillies an additional edge.
• Weather conditions are warm with a chance of precipitation, favoring the Phillies’ powerful offense.

5. Tigers Moneyline

Teams: Tigers @ Astros – 8:10 PM ET – Minute Maid Park Pitching Matchup:

• Tarik Skubal (DET): Excellent against both sides, low ISO, high strikeout rate.
• Hunter Brown (HOU): Decent but high walk rate against lefties, inconsistent.

Suggested Bet: Tigers Moneyline

Key Insights:

• Tarik Skubal’s dominance against both lefties and righties positions him well against the Astros’ lineup.
• Hunter Brown’s inconsistency and high walk rate against a disciplined Tigers lineup could be exploited.
• The Tigers have shown they can put up runs recently, which is promising against Brown.
• Playing in the controlled environment of Minute Maid Park ensures consistent conditions favoring Skubal’s control and strikeout ability.

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