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The best bets and resources to make you more profitable
Let’s talk about baseballs. Since the league provides the balls, there’s always speculation about how they are different each year.
The people who study this sort of thing have noticed a serious change this season, essentially saying that the balls have been “deadened.” The data backs it up, with hitting at an all-time low to start the year.
This seems odd at first, since more offense usually gets better ratings. Some have speculated that the league is trying to compensate for the shorter-than-normal spring training for pitchers.
Either way, MLB will need to do something about it at some point should this trend continue. The point that makes the most sense to me would be May 1, when MLB rosters will be forced to cut down to 26 players from 28. Then the extra hitting could be attributed to a higher-quality roster. That’s no guarantee that would be a logical breaking point.
Until then, I’ll be putting a little extra weight on unders, which brings us to our picks for today.
San Francisco Giants (11-5) at Milwaukee Brewers (10-6)
Giants-Brewers F5 Total Under 3.5 | +100 at DraftKings
In the theme of leaning toward the under, the first thing I’m looking for is great starting pitching. Corbin Burnes fits that bill and Sammy Long is good enough.
The Brewers have been inconsistent at the plate and tend to lean on Brandon Woodruff and Burnes when they start. Take the first-half under as both of these offenses tend to hit better after the sixth or seventh inning.
Los Angeles Dodgers (11-4) at Arizona Diamondbacks (6-10)
Under 8.5 | -110 at DraftKings
Sticking with the same theme, Walker Buehler should have no problem handling the Diamondbacks. They have really struggled against top talent pitching — like Buehler — and the bullpen of the Dodgers is more than good enough to carry the rest of the way.
The concern is that the Dodgers may cover this number on their own, but I think a 5-0 or 6-0 win seems the most likely scenario.