Best MLB Bets for Wednesday, September 13: Back This Strikeout Prop

OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite prop for tonight’s MLB slate.

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick: Ryan Pepiot Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -143 at BetRivers

Two California clubs on the opposite ends of the division close out a three-game series that has seen them split the first two games. Cy Young candidate Blake Snell takes the mound for the Padres in the rubber match while an unknown to many will take the mound for the Dodgers in the name of Ryan Pepiot. That is who we will be targeting today.

Using the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool, we often come across value bets ranging on the plus money side of things. Today? Not so much – and that’s perfectly fine.

Some books are sleeping at the shop and we’re prepared to take full advantage of that. If you intend on locking this bet in with us, we recommend doing it at BetRivers who is currently offering the best value at -143.

If you do not have access to BetRivers, other books such as Bet365 are roughly in the same range as they sit at -150. Books you do not want to be shopping at today? Caesars is listing this same Player Prop at a ridiculous -183 which is 40 cents higher than what we locked this in at. This is why it’s important to shop around as much as possible. Let’s dig into this wager a bit deeper below.

Your average MLB fan hasn’t heard of Ryan Pepiot and we totally understand why. He has logged 21 innings of work during the 2023 campaign but has impressed in his short time on the mound.

In those 21 innings, he has collected a 0.86 ERA and only given up a single HR. Naturally, you would shy away from taking an under when seeing his numbers, but he has shown to be anything but a swing and miss kind of guy. In those same 21 innings of work, Pepiot has only struck out hitters 17 times.

Furthermore, in his two starts this season he has failed to eclipse six SO’s in either of them – the most recent being an impressive seven inning display on the road against the Miami Marlins that saw the Dodgers win 10-0. Why is this important? He worked seven innings and still only managed to rack up three K’s.

While the Padres line up has not been what we thought they would be, they are still a talented bunch who make the lives of opposing pitchers tough with an ability to put up crooked numbers any given inning. Pepiot does not make a lot of hitters swing and miss and even if that was his style – he would have difficulty doing so today. We love this bet and have locked it in without a bit of hesitation on our end.