Best MLB Bet Today: Expect Dodgers to Make Kelly Work

OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite bet for tonight’s game between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 Outs | -125 on Betano

Saturday, October 7 | 9:20 p.m. ET

The four MLB Wildcard series ended as quickly as they began. All four series ended in 2-0 score lines and we have already moved on to the AL and NL Division Series.

We look to sunny Los Angeles this evening for our play of the day. The Diamondbacks will be sending out star pitcher Merrill Kelly and his 3.29 ERA to the mound against the offensive juggernaut known as the Los Angeles Dodgers. We have found a spot we absolutely love tonight in this match up, and sorry to say; we’re fading Kelly tonight having locked in his under 17.5 recorded outs player prop.

As always, we used the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool to find the best value in certain markets, and considering the Dodgers success against Kelly, we were hoping some fade opportunities presented themselves. They did.

We locked in under 17.5 outs by Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks for a very generous -125 at Betano.

Now, if you don’t have the luxury of using this book, Fliff is very similar in odds as they have put out a line of -130 for those who prefer to use Fliff.

There are some huge discrepancies in this line depending what book you’re using, so it’s in your best interest to shop around. For example, Hotstreak (-169) and Pinny (-160) have this same bet at odds that simply make it unplayable and not worth it. By using Betano, we obtained over 40 cents of value and are absolutely frothing at the mouth because of it. Let’s dig into this bet a bit deeper.

Kelly had a very respectable 2023 MLB season earning 12 wins with an ERA of 3.29 in 177.2 innings pitched, registering a whopping 187 K’s in the process. All this should bode well for a stellar outing tonight against the Dodgers, right? Not so much.

Kelly squared off against the Dodgers four times this season, giving up run totals of 0,2,0 and 7. We’re not really sure what happened in that fourth and final outing, but naturally the more you see a pitcher the more you are likely to pick up certain tendencies and use that to your advantage. That is where our concern lies for Kelly and the DBacks tonight. Furthermore, he has faced current Dodger batters 267 times in his career, with them batting .320 against him and an xBA of .290 which suggests the Dodgers do see the ball well off Kelly historically. Given this is the playoffs and pitchers have a much shorter leash, it’s hard to envision Kelly going the distance required for this bet to lose if he finds himself in some trouble along the way.

Tonight we are backing the Dodgers bats against a pitcher who has struggled against this crop of Dodger players and will likely be on a short leash given the bullpens have had the day off and come in rested. Lock it in.