Best MLB Bets Today: Back This Pitching Prop Wednesday

OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite player prop on today’s MLB slate.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick: Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts | +116 on BetRivers

Wednesday, September 27 | 6:40 p.m. ET

As the Phillies prepare for the second of the three against the Pittsburgh Pirates who have been eliminated from playoff contention, Ranger Suarez who boasts a 3.89 ERA entering tonight’s matchup will look to continue his impressive streak against a club with very little to play for.

In some ways, given that the Phillies have clinched a Playoff spot already, the next few days could be viewed as a final tune up in preparation for the big stage. We’re backing Ranger Suarez to do just that and have locked in on his strikeout prop of over 5.5 tonight.

As always, we used the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool to find where the best value lies for any given bet and tonight we have discovered some serious value backing Ranger Suarez.

As mentioned, we’ve locked in the over 5.5 strikeouts for Suarez and did so at BetRivers who were offering us a beautiful +116. That said – they were not alone, Bet99 is also offering the same +116 if you prefer to bet with them.

While we provide you the best places to lock in your bets, we also provide the worst and that isn’t going to change today. If you’re interested in cheering on Suarez tonight with us, don’t do it at PrizePicks (-137 implied odds) or TonyBet (-120) who seem to have a good understanding that Suarez has a real shot of crushing his total tonight. Let’s dig into this bet a bit more below.

Suarez has taken the mound 21 times in the 2023 season for the Phillies, but has little to show for it in the way of wins racking up a mere four on the season. As we all know, the win-loss column isn’t always a fair indicator of how a specific pitcher has done in a game or a season for that matter.

Suarez has looked good – especially as of late going more than six innings in four of his last five starts averaging 2.4 runs against in those five starts. While all that is great, we’re here for his K’s.

In his last five starts, Suarez has put together K numbers of 8 (Twins), 5 (Brewers), 10 (Marlins), 5 (Cardinals) and 6 (Mets) for a hit rate of 60% in his last five starts coming one short in the other two matchups. Over the duration of the 2023 campaign, Suarez has beaten tonight’s number of 5.5 only eight times for a rate of only 38% which may scare off a lot of you guys, but not us. While reaching the mark only 38% of the time this season, he has come one shy an additional 6 times which could potentially bring his success rate to 66%.

Look, all we’re asking for is a chance. Suarez has shown all season he is capable of getting guys to swing and miss and while the success rate over the entirety of the season is not jaw dropping, he provides us with a solid chance to do so and has increased his K numbers over the last handful of starts. We love that and we’re entering with confidence. Lock it in!