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Our MLB expert breaks down his top plays and predictions for today’s slate of games below! Read on to find out the MLB bets @KeepTheJuice21 is eyeing today.
7:20 p.m. ET
The A’s travel to Atlanta tonight for the first game of the series and the statistics are not in their favor.
It all starts with Cole Irvin, who it seems is a little ahead of himself. There’s an advanced metric called XERA, or expected ERA which takes hits, home runs and walks per 9, all weighted differently and subtracts weighted strikeouts per 9.
The intention is to use the average hits/walks/HRs it takes to score a run and the difference between this and actual ERA should be a function of how “lucky” a pitcher is.
It’s not perfect, but the gap matters and Irvin’s 4.92 XERA is well above his actual ERA of 2.96.
If I haven’t bored you away yet, the conclusion is there should be value picking against Irvin starts right now, especially against the Braves.
Atlanta has a hard-hitting lineup that will make him pay for the lack of strikeouts. Kyle Wright has been more predictable on the other side so that’s where my worries end.
6:40 p.m. ET
The Reds have pulled themselves out of one of the worst starts in MLB history, thanks in part to some great young talent.
Graham Ashcraft has been impressive in his first three starts, contributing to wins against Toronto, San Francisco and Washington.
But I’m not sold yet.
The hitting is still very streaky and they rarely perform two days in a row (they scored 7 last night).
And while Ashcraft has been impressive, the rookie bump only lasts so long. There’s tape on him now and it’s a matter of time before the other shoe drops.
The moneyline should be closer to even and I feel very confident in the Diamondbacks plus the runs.