Astros vs. Rangers Game 3 Pick: Expect a Short Night for Scherzer

OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite bet for Game 3 of the ALCS in Texas tonight.

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Pick: Max Scherzer Under 12.5 Outs | +100 on Fliff

Wednesday, October 18 | 8:03 p.m. ET

The Houston Astros find themselves in quite a tough situation, down 0-2 in the ALCS against the in-state rival Texas Rangers. The series now heads to Globe Life Field where their season can come to a close if they don’t manage to put some W’s up on the board.

Not only that, but they will be tasked with opposing future HOF pitcher Max Scherzer, as if they needed any more hurdles tonight. Sounds intimidating, right? Well, luckily for the Astros, they will be getting Scherzer who is returning from injury and will officially be on a pitch limit ranging between 60-70 according to the club.

Naturally, when we hear that the first thing we all do is slam the under, right? We’re no different. It’s exactly what we did and exactly what we are locking in tonight for our play of the day…Max Scherzer under 12.5 outs recorded.

As is always the case, we used the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool to find the best value on Scherzer markets, and stumbled across some ridiculous value tonight. As previously mentioned, we locked in Max Scherzer’s Player Prop of Under 12.5 Outs Recorded and did so at Fliff who has this line posted at +100 at the time of writing.

When comparing that to other books, it’s jaw-dropping the discrepancies in set lines across the board. For example, while we have +100 on Fliff, other books such as Caesars have this at -161 with Betway closely behind at -152 and BetMGM at -145. By using Fliff, we have received over 60 cents of value and that’s exactly what we love. Now, speaking of love, let’s dig into this bet a bit deeper and why we love it.

Scherzer put together yet another respectable campaign, logging a 3.77 ERA with 152.2 innings recorded as he comes off the IL to face the Houston Astros in Game 3 of the ALCS. While it’s great to see Scherzer holding the upper hand against father time so far, he will be on a pitch count between 60-70 which isn’t much when taking into consideration a few things.

Firstly, Scherzer averaged 16.1 pitches per inning in 2023 which would take him roughly into the fourth inning, but more importantly for us, it doesn’t consider one of the most important things; the Astros success against Max historically and their ability to use up pitches.

The Astros collectively have batted .287 against Max with a total of seven homers hit against him. The batting average combined with long balls in a matchup where the starting pitcher will be on a pitch limit does not add up to a lengthy outing.

The Astros have left six men on base in both games 1 and 2 and you gotta imagine that the offense isn’t going to stay quiet while wasting opportunities much longer. Truthfully, we don’t need many more reasons to lock this bet in; it just makes too much sense and with that being said, we encourage you to do the same.