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MLB

Sharp Six-Pick ParlayPlay Entry to Win $1,500 on June 27, 2023

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

I’m back on ParlayPlay for another sharp six-pick entry, looking to go back-to-back after last night’s big win. Yesterday, we hit a six-leg slip and won $1,500, so hopefully you tailed that one.

ParlayPlay is relatively new and they offer a $100 deposit bonus to any new users who sign-up. If you haven’t already, sign up using code ‘ODDSJAM’. It’s the easiest $100 you’ll ever make and you can use that bonus on today’s entry!

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Pick #1: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts

Our first play comes from the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer, which is one of my favorite tools for creating sharp ParlayPlay slips like this one. It also displays sportsbook odds, which is a great way to read into the market and determine whether to pick the over or under.

As you can see, Pinnacle and other sportsbooks are offering this exact same play in the -140 range, but we are getting -113 at ParlayPlay.

The Fantasy Optimizer uses sportsbook odds to calculate win probabilities. For Montgomery, all sportsbooks have his under 4.5 Ks heavily favored (around -140 odds). Thus, according to the betting market, his under is a lot more likely than his over, so this is a sharp pick to include in your ParlayPlay slip.

Any pick in green on the Fantasy Optimizer is mathematically profitable. That means that the implied chance of those bets winning is greater than the required winning threshold at ParlayPlay.

Using the Positive EV tool, we can also see how much the sportsbooks are favoring this prop.

ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform. For six-pick insured entries, you need to win over 53.22% of your player props to be profitable long term. All of those picks in green are above that threshold, which is what makes them mathematically profitable.

ParlayPlay and other daily fantasy sports platforms are relying on their users to not bet with an edge, like we are doing here. They assume bettors can’t win much above 50% of their player prop over/unders. If you have no advantage, you’ll only be able to hit 50% of your prop bets, so you’ll lose money long term.

Take a look at the video below, where I break down my ParlayPlay strategies in greater detail:

Full Slip:

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