Pirates vs. Marlins Strikeout Prop: Lots of Value on Garrett

This play is on Fliff, which is a great social sportsbook that I strongly recommend everyone downloads. Whenever I’m looking for profitable bets, I constantly see opportunities on Fliff.

Fliff is also amazing because since it’s technically a social sportsbook, you don’t have to be in a legal betting state to use it.

You can sign up for Fliff using promo code “ODDSJAM” or directly using this link for a first-purchase match up to $100.

OddsJam’s Positive Expected Value betting tool is your best friend for finding value at every book, and that includes Fliff.

The tool scans the market in real-time and finds outlier lines where value exists, and there’s a lot of value on Fliff. That’s how I found this bet on Marlins pitcher Braxton Garrett.

Pirates vs. Marlins Pick: Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts | +105 at Fliff

Take a look at the screenshot above. Every other book on the market has Garrett below -100 odds, and FanDuel, DraftKings, and HotStreak all have the over 5.5 favored.

Fliff is all the way into the plus odds territory at +105, making it a clear outlier in the market. Identifying value like this is the only way to consistently make money sports betting.

I’m not going to pretend like I’ve analyzed the Pirates lineup and ran simulations on my fancy model to see how many strikeouts Garrett will get. I leave all that dirty work to the sportsbooks, who have far more time and resources than I do to project games.

I just watch as they collectively determine where the market should be, and then I pounce on outliers like this that I find using the tools on OddsJam.

The Positive Expected Value tool is how I found this bet, but Garrett’s strikeout total shows up on the Arbitrage tool as well.

Since Fliff is at +105 for the over and HotStreak is at +110 for the under, you could technically bet on both sides and guarantee yourself a profit.

Let’s say you risk $100 on each side. If the over hits, you win $105 on Fliff and lose $100 on HotStreak. That’s a $5 profit. If the under hits, you lose $100 on Fliff but win $110 on HotStreak.

That said, it looks like Fliff is more of an outlier so I’ve elected to just place the over side of the bet.