$5,000 Early Player Prop Picks for Tuesday

Some people may say this is a dry stretch in the sports calendar but there’s still plenty of value in baseball…especially when you start looking for profitable bets the night before.

When you identify value in the market, it doesn’t matter if the game starts in a minute, a day, a week, or a month. Obviously the line may move for or against you, but that will even out over time. Value at any point in time is worth taking, and that’s what I’ve done here for this play on Jock MKT.

If you haven’t signed up for Jock MKT yet, be sure to do so and use promo code “ODDSJAM” for a 100% deposit match up to $100!

Pick #1: Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 Hits Allowed

I found this play using the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer.

As you can see in the screenshot above, the optimizer has identified Bradish as a green play, which means there’s positive expected value.

To win on Jock MKT five-pick slips like this, you need to be winning your bets 54% of the time. Any bet with a higher percent chance to win than that, like in our example above, is mathematically profitable.

Sites like JockMKT know that most sports bettors have zero “edge” (or advantage) – they’ll will win 50%, lose 50% of their player prop over/unders. Thus, recreational bettors with no edge will lose money on Jock MKT long-term, as they can’t win their player props above 54.25% of the time.

Both DraftKings and Caesars have the under 5.5 heavily favored, which is what makes the play show up green on the optimizer.

Pick #2: Johan Oviedo Under 5.5 Strikeouts

This play could be found on the optimizer above, but it also showed up on the Positive Expected Value tool.

Look at all the other sportsbooks which heavily favor Oviedo’s under. DraftKings is all the way up at -145 which shows that the under is significantly more likely to hit than the over.

The thing about sites like Jock MKT is that their payouts don’t change depending on which side of the over/under you take. You’d NEVER want to take anything like Oviedo’s over on Jock MKT because sportsbooks like FanDuel have that set up at +120, meaning it is not likely to hit.

Sports betting is all about finding these small edges in the market that add up over time as the sample size of bets gets larger and larger, as does your bankroll.

Full Slip: