$40 to $1,000: Six Sharp Player Prop Bets for Tonight!

In this article, I’m going to run through six sharp player prop bets. I have MLB, NBA and NHL picks.

Play #1: Malcolm Brogdon Under 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists on ParlayPlay

My first player prop is an NBA pick. I’m on Malcolm Brogdon under 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists. I found this NBA prop on the Odds Screen.

As seen in the screenshot above, PrizePicks & all sportsbooks have Brogdon’s line set at 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists. ParlayPlay is too high relative to every other data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds), so we want to take the under.

Data may not be glamorous, but this is exactly how you make money sports betting. You hunt for value & inefficiencies in the market. You follow the data.

Over 99% of sports bettors find picks with their “gut” – that doesn’t work… If you think you can outsmart the market & beat the bookmakers with your gut, then you should find a new hobby. You won’t make money sports betting.

I signed up for ParlayPlay just a few months ago and am already up $2,216 in profit. The screenshot above shows just that. I have not wagered a lot of money on this platform either – they offer maximum bet sizes of just $60…

Play #2: Zack Greinke Under 3.5 Strikeouts on ParlayPlay

My second ParlayPlay pick is in the MLB. I’m on Zack Greinke u3.5 Ks.

I found this MLB prop on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer. This betting tool is simple to use – just hit the picks in green. As seen in the screenshot above, Zack Greinke under 3.5 Ks is the best play currently available. This MLB pick has a 57.3% win rate.

As seen in the screenshot below, all sportsbooks have Greinke’s under 3.5 Strikeouts as the heavily favored outcome (around -142 odds).

Just like PrizePicks, ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform. You need to win above 53.22% of your player prop over/unders to be profitable on this fantasy sports platform. For Zack Greinke, all sportsbooks have his under 3.5 Ks heavily favored, so we know his under is a lot more likely than his over.

The Fantasy Optimizer simply quantifies the exact win probability of your wager. For Greinke u3.5 Ks, it’s 57.3%. The win rate for Greinke u3.5 Ks is above 53.22%, so this MLB bet on ParlayPlay is profitable.

My six picks on ParlayPlay are as follows:

1. Zack Greinke Under 3.5 Strikeouts
2. adrian Houser Over 1.5 Walks Allowed
3. Anthony DeSclafani Over 3.5 Strikeouts
4. James Harden Under 9.0 Assists
5. Malcolm Brogdon Under 22.5 Pts + Reb + Ast
6. Tobias Harris Over 21.0 Pts + Reb + Ast

The strategy video below goes into more depth, breaking down each pick & why it’s profitable.