2022 Wyndham Championship Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Outright Winner, Top 10, Top 20
2022 Wyndham Championship Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
Tony Finau joined Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele as the third player this season to win in back-to-back weeks as he ran away with the Rocket Mortgage Classic last Sunday in Detroit. With that he now has as many wins in the past two weeks as he previously had in his entire career.
Even though we didn’t have Finau to win, we had a serious bounce back week with Chris Kirk finishing in the top 20 to cash our best bet and Russell Henley cashing a very nice top 10 +500 ticket resulting in 8.7 units of total profit on these pages.
This week’s field will be happy to know that red-hot Tony Finau is taking a much deserved week off as the PGA Tour heads to North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship for the final event of the season before the FedExCup Playoffs begin.
This week’s track is at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina.
It is a par-70 that measures in at 7,131 yards, making it one of the shortest courses on Tour.
Similar to last week, it is another Donald Ross design but with it being a very short course, accuracy rather than distance, off the tee will be paramount.
The fairways are narrow and there is a significant penalty for missing them.
Historically in the 13 years that the Wyndham Championship has been played here, there is over a 30% difference in greens hit in regulation from the fairways versus the rough. The players will need to keep their drives in the fairways in order to give themselves an opportunity at birdie looks.
Hitting greens in regulation and efficiently putting on the bermuda poa greens will be critical for amassing birdies this week.
If history is any indication, the winner is going to need to score birdies in bunches as five of the last six winners at Sedgefield shot 20-under-par or better — it is safe to say we can expect another birdie fest for the third straight week.
Statistics to Look At
In direct contrast to last week, short iron play and putting will be far more predictive of success this week than distance off the tee.
Sedgefield Country Club demands accuracy off the tee, crisp ball striking on the approach, and a hot putter.
For those reasons, the key metrics that our model is using to compile our portfolio this week are: fairways gained, SG: Approach, SG: Proximity 50-175 yards, birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, SG: Par 4s, SG: putting bermuda greens and three putt avoidance.
2022 Wyndham Championship Bets Outright Winner Picks, Odds
Sungjae Im | +1600 at FanDuel
Sungjae Im has been a staple on these pages all season and I had serious buyers’ remorse for leaving him off the card two weeks ago at the 3M where he was the first round leader and ultimately finished in a tie for second place.
At the 3M, he had the best ball striking week of his career, gaining 5.5 strokes off the tee and 5.2 strokes on approach. In his last 24 rounds he ranks in the top 10 in the field in both Good Drives Gained and Fairways Gained — two statistics which will be vital for success this week.
Im has great course history at Sedgefield Country Club finishing T-6, T-9 and T-24 in his last three starts.
The South Korean has the perfect skill set to contend as he consistently splits fairways and can catch fire with his putter, especially on bermuda greens where he has historically always putted his best.
Im won early in the season on a similar par-70 track and we agree with the oddsmakers that he is the deserved favorite to get his second win on a course that fits his game perfectly.
BEST BET: Sungjae Im Top 10 | +200 at FanDuel
Will Zalatoris | +1700 at FanDuel
Approach play is one of the most predictive stats for success this week and there is no better ball striker in the world than Will Zalatoris who has been number one in strokes gained on the approach virtually all season long.
He started slow last week at the Rocket Mortgage which cost him the chance to contend, but he is coming in with momentum after shooting a 65 in his final round which earned him a T-20 finish.
I will admit it’s not a great course fit for Zalatoris who is at his best at more difficult courses where the winning score is higher — his poor putting makes it difficult for him to contend at birdie fests.
Zalatoris probably has a better chance to get his elusive first victory next week at the BMW Championship — a tougher course against one of the best fields of the year — which is where he has always been at his best.
With that said, we have been backing Willy Z all season on these pages waiting for his breakout victory and I won’t be able to look in the mirror on Sunday evening if he closes out the regular season with his long overdue first win. It also doesn’t hurt that he is very familiar with this course after playing college right down the road at Wake Forest.
He is the best player in this field by far and it’s time for him to finally start playing like it. As long as his putter doesn’t totally betray him, his elite approach game should have him in one of the final groupings on Sunday at worst.
Billy Horschel | +2200 at FanDuel
Billy Horschel is always a difficult handicap as his play tends to be erratic, but when he is on, he can be one of the best iron players on tour and he has the ability to get red hot with the flatstick as well.
He won in a runaway victory five weeks ago at the Memorial when he led the field in strokes gained total and he has great course history at Sedgefield — finishing second last year, sixth in 2020 and 11th in 2019.
If Horschel is dialed with his irons this week he is poised for another top 10 finish and an outright victory is very much in play for one of the best ball strikers and putters in this field.
Webb Simpson | +2500 at FanDuel
It’s Webb Simpson at the Wyndham. We could just leave it at that.
For those who don’t know, the Wyndham is Simpson’s favorite tournament of the year — so much so that he named his first child Wyndham.
That was done with good reason, he notched his first career victory here and hasn’t finished outside of the top seven in the last five years and has ten top-11 finishes in his 13 career starts here.
Admittedly, these odds are a bit short for Simpson given his recent form, but course history wise there is none better.
Simpson is a former major winner and he is on the FedEx Cup Playoffs bubble, currently ranking one spot outside of being able to play next week. A strong finish this week would place him in the playoff field and given his familiarity and course history at Sedgefield, we anticipate a strong finish for him to secure his way into the postseason.
Russell Henley | +2500 at FanDuel
Last week Russell Henley was the model’s top ranked player for the field and he proved the model right — finishing T10 and cashing two very nice tickets in the process for both his top 10 and top 20.
The only player who was better than Henley in strokes gained tee to green last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic was the runaway winner, Tony Finau. If it wasn’t for his faulty putter, Henley could have easily contended.
This week Henley is once again the model’s top choice and we have absolutely zero hesitation going right back to the well.
Sedgefield Country Club is a perfect fit for Henley’s skill set. He ranks first in the field in birdies or better gained and proximity 50-175 yards, second in strokes gained approach, and fifth in fairways gained.
Last year he was the 54 hole leader at the Wyndham before collapsing on Sunday. He went into the 18th hole only needing a par to join the six man playoff, but he bogeyed and missed out on the playoff by one stroke. We love backing players with a “revenge” narrative, and Henley certainly fits that category this week.
What I really like about Henley is he hasn’t played nearly as much as most of the others in this field. At a point in the season when most players are worn down, Henley just played his first non-major event in 12 weeks. He is fresher than almost everybody and hopefully that will help him avoid another Sunday collapse.
There are only a handful of courses on TOUR where I believe that Henley can actually win, but Sedgefield is undoubtedly one of them.
It is a short enough course to minimize his distance deficiencies and Henley’s weakness is his poor putting — but he is best on Bermuda greens with all three of his wins on tour coming on this surface.
If he can avoid losing strokes putting like he did last week in spite of his top 10 finish, he has an excellent chance to avenge his 2021 defeat.
2022 Wyndham Championship Derivative Picks
Wyndham Championship Top 10 Picks
Sungjae Im | +200 at FanDuel
Will Zalatoris | +230 at Bet365
Wyndham Championship Top 20 Picks
Shane Lowry | +100 at FanDuel
Billy Horschel | +120 at FanDuel
Russell Henley | +125 at FanDuel
Adam Svvenson | +300 at DraftKings
Mark Hubbard | +300 FanDuel
J.J. Spaun | +400 at FanDuel
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