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The best bets and resources to make you more profitable
Saturday, Aug. 6 | 9 p.m. ET
While most observers can agree Jake Paul and Hasim Rahman Jr. are far from the best boxers in the sport, their pairing has attracted the eyeballs of boxing fans and casual onlookers.
Hasim Rahman Jr. is a professional boxer, a threshold of skill that represents a massive leap in competition for Jake Paul — a social media personality who has fought an NBA star, a wrestler in need of a hip replacement (Ben Askren) and a washed MMA champion (Tyron Woodley).
If you view Paul as a heel deserving of comeuppance, Rahman represents the most credible challenge to Paul’s undefeated record; Rahman’s father was a two-time heavyweight champion so he grew up around legends of the sport.
Rahman Jr. was an undefeated professional prospect (12-0) until he was bounced from the unbeaten ranks in an April bout against Kenzie Morrison via TKO5, moving his official record to 12-1 as a pro with six wins via KO and one loss via KO.
Paul has fought the lower level of competition of the two, but his progression has been reasonable for a fighter of his training and skill level.
Paul will be at an experience disadvantage in the matchup, but he may have some intangible physical advantages. For example, Paul appears to be the faster fighter in terms of hand speed and he is the fighter naturally accustomed to the weight class.
Rahman will be moving down from his last heavyweight weigh-in of 224 pounds to a 200-pound cruiserweight limit. As best I can tell looking over Rahman’s record, he has not fought at cruiserweight as a professional so how he will look, how his chin will hold up and how his cardio will hold up are open questions that may favor Paul.
If Paul has shown nothing else, he has shown that he has genuine knock-out power and that he carries that power into the later rounds of his fights.
From a narrative perspective, it’s hard to imagine Jake Paul would take a fight he did not believe he was fully capable of winning.
Paul and Rahman have a history of sparring with one another; Paul brought in Rahman in preparation for his boxing match with Nate Robinson.
Paul is obviously the A-side in the matchup as Rahman was brought in as a replacement for Tommy Fury (pulled for visa issues from an anticipated booking).
For Rahman, the incentives are obvious; Jake Paul is the biggest exposure fight he can possibly get. If he is able to get the jump on Paul, he will rebound his career and boost his asking price by a significant margin.
However, even in a loss, Rahman would increase his brand awareness and receive his largest fight purse as a professional for stepping up.
Surveying the market, Paul can be had for as low as -188 on the moneyline, and -200 on some major domestic and international markets sharp and square alike.
I expect this fight to garner two-way betting action with the sharper action on the favorite with the public, casual bettors and boxing purists betting on the underdog Hasim Rahman Jr.
Initially, I expected to like Rahman because of his wealth of professional and amateur experience, but after running the tape, I am not sold on him being a much better boxer than Paul.
Paul is the fighter that strikes me as more dedicated, hungry, in better shape, faster with his hands and more disciplined with his hand position.
The switch stance stylings of Rahman may give Paul fits early but I feel Paul will be able to outlast his foe, find the shots that matter and potentially hand Rahman his second knockout loss in 2022.
Paul has real power, and weight cuts matter. Forcing Rahman to deplete himself and keep his weight low in advance of the contest will jeopardize his cardio and his ability to take a punch.
Those are two attributes you would want to beat Jake Paul based on what we have seen from him so far.
There are no props available yet for this fight, so we will revisit when the market is more robust.
For now, my favorite play is Jake Paul on the moneyline, and anything under -200 feels like a gift to me. That being said, Paul has been a money-printing machine for me since he has emerged on the boxing scene.
He has been consistently undervalued as a wealthy A-side with access to the best doctors, trainers, nutrition and recovery throughout his boxing tenure.
I will continue to back him for as long as I feel he is an undervalued commodity.