PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy DFS Strategy Guide: How Many Picks?

PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy are two fantasy sports companies that have taken the sports gambling industry by storm. By that, I mean that PrizePicks & Underdog are extremely popular platforms.

In this strategy article, we’ll be discussing how to win long-term on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy. We’ll also briefly touch on other DFS platforms, such as ParlayPlay, Thrive Fantasy, No House Advantage (NHA) & JockMKT.

If you haven’t signed up for any or all of the above, be sure to use promo code ‘ODDSJAM’ for the best available bonus.

When I say win, I mean make money. In 2023, I’ve already profited $35,644.00 on Underdog Fantasy. Explaining the math behind these platforms & how to beat them is not sexy or funny, but it makes money. I bet on sports to make money.

DFS Sites (PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy) vs. Traditional Sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings)

If you look at a traditional sportsbooks, such as FanDuel, you’ll see a bunch of numbers (e.g. odds). As seen in the screenshot from FanDuel sportsbook, Jokic over 26.5 Points is currently priced at -118 odds (e.g. bet $118 to profit $100).

Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Underdog Fantasy, PrizePicks, ParlayPlay & other fantasy sports websites do not have odds. There’s no odds on Underdog Fantasy.

Rather, these DFS platforms have fixed payouts. As seen in the screenshot below from Underdog Fantasy, any 2 pick entry on Underdog has a 3x payout. It doesn’t matter what two picks you select – you’re always getting a 3x payout for a 2 pick entry. You could take 2 golf picks, 2 NBA picks, 1 MLB & 1 NHL pick, etc. It doesn’t matter. Any 2 pick entry has a 3x payout on Underdog Fantasy.

On Underdog Fantasy, the payouts are:

• 2 pick entry = 3x payout
• 3 pick entry = 6x payout
• 4 pick entry = 10x payout
• 5 pick entry = 20x payout

It is important to note that each fantasy sports platform has slightly different payouts. ParlayPlay, for example, has a 22x payout for 5 pick entries. Thus, for 5 pick entries, ParlayPlay is “better” than Underdog Fantasy; Underdog only offers 20x payouts for 5 pick entries. ParlayPlay pays out more, which is obviously better!

How to Win at Fantasy Sports (PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy)

Most recreational sports bettors do not understand how PrizePicks & other fantasy sports platforms make money. That’s a problem…

If you don’t even understand how PrizePicks is trying to make money off of you, then you’re not going to be able to beat PrizePicks long-term. It’s that simple. As a sharp sports bettor, it’s critical to understand each DFS platform, how it works & the optimal strategy for making money.

Should you be placing 2 pick entries on Underdog Fantasy? Or are 3 pick entries better? Should you use insurance or skip it? These are all really, really important questions to answer before you ever start gambling on any of these fantasy sports websites.

The way these DFS platforms make money is by assuming that sports bettors can’t get an advantage. If you have 0 “edge” (e.g. advantage) on Underdog Fantasy, then you’re only going to be able to win your player prop picks 50% of the time.

As an example, let’s look at Cam Payne over/under 5.5 Assists. Obviously, Payne is either going to have 1) over or 2) under 5.5 Assists. Thus, if you had to randomly select over or under, you’d be 50% to win.

Earlier in this sports betting strategy article, I explained that Underdog Fantasy has 3x payouts for 2 pick entries. You’re staking $10 to win $30 in total payout ($20 in profit, plus your $10 stake). Thus, you need to win over 1/3 of your 2 pick entries on Underdog Fantasy to be profitable. If you win 10 entries and lose 20 entries, then your net profit will be $0.

We know that:

• You need to win two picks to cash a 2 pick entry
• You need to win 1/3 (33.333%) of your 2 pick entries to breakeven

This now means that you need to win 57.73% of your player prop picks to be profitable playing 2 pick entries on Underdog Fantasy. If you can win your player prop over/unders 57.73% of the time, then you’ll be hitting both picks in an entry 33.33% of the time (57.73% x 57.73% = 33.33%).

If this sports betting math is confusing, you can email me with any questions. I’m always happy to answer any questions related to sports betting. My email is [email protected].

If you have no advantage or “edge” as a sports bettor, you’ll only be winning your player prop over/unders 50% of the time, not 57.73%. Thus, you’ll lose money long-term on Underdog Fantasy.

This is exactly how Underdog Fantasy makes money. It is also how PrizePicks, ParlayPlay, No House Advantage and JockMKT make money off customers. All of these fantasy sports platforms require that you can win > 53% of your player prop picks to be profitable.

Most people just can’t do it… They can’t win 53% of their over/unders. It’s hard. If you have no advantage and can only win 50% of your player prop over/unders, then you’ll lose money on every single platform. Stop gambling, seriously. It may sound harsh, but if you’re trying to make money sports betting, you need to understand how these platforms work & try to make money off YOU. It’s YOUR money…

Since I use all of these fantasy sports platforms, I went through and calculated the win probability that you need to be profitable. For each platform, it’s a different percentage, as some platforms have higher payouts than others.

Here’s the Google spreadsheet breaking down No House Advantage. As seen in the image above, you need to win 53.22% of your player props to “breakeven” on No House Advantage. If you’re able to hit 55% of your player prop picks, then you’ll be profitable on No House Advantage. If you can only hit 51%, then you’ll lose a lot of money. It’s that simple. With these fixed payout fantasy sports platforms, all that matters is your win rate.

It’s important to note that it really matters how many picks you include in your entry. I just showed that you need to win 57.73% of your player props to “breakeven” playing 2 pick entries on Underdog Fantasy. However, for 3 pick entries, you only need to win 54.95% of your player props to “breakeven.” Thus, on Underdog Fantasy, 3 pick entries are “better” than 2 pick entries. The sports betting math is in this Google Spreadsheet; I have one for each DFS platform.

Anyways, I don’t want to bore you with a ton of math for each platform. Here’s what is optimal on each platform.

The table above breaks down each fantasy platform, what amount of picks is optimal, and what the required breakeven win probability is.

On ParlayPlay, for example, you should only be placing 6 pick entries with insurance. If you win over 53.27% of your player prop picks, then you’ll be profitable on ParlayPlay. It’s that simple.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions. My email is [email protected].