How to Play & Win Pick’em on Underdog Fantasy

Underdog Fantasy is well known for their wide array of fantasy drafts, most notably Best Ball. With that said, that is not the only offering on the Underdog Fantasy platform.

They also offer fantasy contests called “Pick’em,” which functions essentially as a player prop parlay (called entry).

Users can select between two to five player stats (pretty much any counting stat in sports will qualify) and select that player to go higher or lower than the number provided.

Using the proper strategies, it can be incredibly profitable playing the Underdog Fantasy Pick’em.

If you haven’t already signed up for Underdog, be sure to use promo code ‘ODDSJAM’ for a $100 first deposit match.

How to Play Underdog Fantasy Pick’em?

Before detailing profitable strategies using Underdog, it is first important to understand how it even works. As mentioned previously, it functions the same as a parlay. You choose multiple picks, and the payouts increase exponentially as the number of picks increases as well.

One huge difference with Underdog compared to a normal parlay on a sportsbook such as DraftKings or FanDuel is that the payouts are the exact same no matter what individual legs are added to your entry.

The payouts are listed below:

• A two-pick entry doubles your money in terms of profit (+200 odds).
• A three-pick entry would 5x your money (+500 odds).
• A four-pick entry would 9x your money (+900 odds).
• Lastly, a five-pick entry would 19x your money (+1900 odds).

With that said, there are a couple of notes to understand when selecting your entry:

• An entry must contain players from at least two different teams, but you can include picks from different sports in the same entry.
• If one pick pushes, then that pick is removed from your entry and your parlay is decreased by one leg (a three-pick would become a two-pick entry). If you have a two-pick entry and one leg pushes, then you just get your entire entry refunded.

What Number of Picks is Optimal in an Entry on Underdog?

Because the payouts are the exact same regardless of what specific picks are added to an entry, that enables us to calculate the break-even number for each entry, and also to deduce the implied odds of the individual picks per entry as well.

Please see the table below:

So, from this table, you can see that the optimal number of picks per entry is either three or five picks. They have the best implied odds per individual pick (-122), which means they have the lowest break-even win percentage as well.

Obviously, because we are placing parlays with Underdog, variance is going to be a factor. With a three-pick entry, you could lose 80% of your entries and still be profitable! Of course, the flip side of that is you only need to hit two out of every 10 three-pick entries and you are making serious cash.

It is understandable for human nature to want to play two-pick entries because you have the highest chance of actually winning an entry, but that is not optimal from a math perspective.

Three and five picks represent the best value, but users need to understand that the hit rates are low and to be able to handle winning between 6-20% of those entries.

How to Find Optimal Picks in an Underdog Pick’em Entry

So now that we know what number of picks per entry is optimal, let’s get to the important part: actually finding good picks to put in an entry.

Luckily, OddsJam makes this pretty easy. I’ve mentioned a bunch of times that the payouts do not change based on what picks you add to an entry.

So, the strategy for finding good picks is what I like to call the caveman strategy: find player props that are likely to hit. It really is as simple as that — so simple a caveman can do it.

I understand that this sounds overly simplistic, but let me explain. When a regulated sportsbook (DraftKings/FanDuel) deems a player prop likely to hit, they are going to make that play more expensive to buy.

Take the screenshot above, for example. If we are removing Underdog from the equation, we can see that legitimately every single sportsbook that is offering lines for this NBA player prop is heavily favoring the under. We see odds range from -127 all the way up to -150.

The sportsbook are telling you that they believe Tyrese Haliburton is incredibly likely to go under this steals + blocks prop, so they are making it more expensive to buy.

Well, as mentioned a bunch of times now, Underdog does not charge any extra juice/vig on any player prop. It is the same exact implied odds every single time.

So, the strategy to find the best picks to put into an entry is to combine multiple picks that look like the play above. When I say to find a player prop that is likely to hit, this is exactly what I am referring to.

Let the market tell you which player props the sportsbooks think are likely to hit, and then combine them into an entry.

Using OddsJam, you can filter specifically for Underdog Fantasy, and you will be provided optimal picks to put into an entry.

In addition to using the Positive EV tool as seen above, we also have the OddsJam Fantasy Screen, which will show you all profitable picks to include in your entries on Underdog.