Positive EV Betting: How and Why to Bet Based on the Market

I spend a lot of time talking about the “sports betting market.” It’s important for profitable (e.g. Positive EV) betting, so let’s break it down…

Long story short, “the market” just means give credit where it’s due: the sportsbooks are pretty dang smart… and here’s why that’s a fact:

Books have invested millions of dollars into their ability to set & move lines. They have better data feeds than you and I. They also have better models than you and I. 

Their full-time is to make you LOSE money… Sportsbooks have hundreds of engineers and data scientists working on their algorithms constantly. You’re not just going to “outsmart” the books with your “gut” – this thought process is why 99% of sports bettors lose money long-term & the books are in business…

Sportsbooks have access to betting volume data, or “flow” (e.g. all the bets people are placing & they can adjust lines accordingly).

If everybody thinks a player is going to go over, then they’ll bet the over. If lopsided demand is coming in on the over, then sportsbooks will move that players line higher. They’re not stupid. Just like the price of a stock goes up if there’s excess demand, it’s same for sportsbook odds. That’s why line movement occurs.

This is how any market works. Sportsbooks aim to find the odds where supply & demand is balanced (e.g. equal action is coming in on both teams).

What this means for you: Trust the market.

This article isn’t intended to discourage you from betting. It’s just the truth. The easy, simple way to beat the books is to find mistakes (e.g. inefficiencies/discrepancies) in the market.

All sportsbooks set lines independently & have different odds from one another, so they sometimes make mistakes. Mistakes = opportunity for profitable bettors.

The fact that the betting market is “fragmented” with so many sportsbooks is why so many profitable bets exist. Sportsbooks can’t be perfect – they “mess up” their lines occasionally, and that’s when profitable bettors strike.

Here’s an example of a profitable bet from the Positive EV Tool earlier today: Diamondbacks -0.5 1st Half Run Line at +105 Odds on BetMGM.

Aside from BetMGM, you can see all other sportsbooks have this line set around -115 odds. BetMGM is making a mistake with their line set at +105. They’re giving way, way too good of odds on this play.

Let me know if you have any questions about this! You can email me at [email protected].