WNBA Best Bets Wednesday 9/11/24

We’ve got a solid WNBA slate today, and I’m excited to dive into the top matchups. Each of these games offers a great opportunity to find value, especially with player props.

I’ll break down each game, focusing on key players, matchups, and injury updates that will affect today’s best bets. I’ll also provide actionable insights, using stats and trends to explain why certain players stand out.

Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever

• Spread: Aces -5.5
• Over/Under: 178

Key Insights:

• Asia Wilson’s Uncertainty: After missing her first game since 2019, Asia Wilson’s status is crucial for this game. While she’s not listed on the injury report, the Aces might still manage her minutes cautiously. If she plays, it’s unclear how much she’ll contribute.
• Fever’s Offensive Surge: Indiana is averaging a WNBA-best 97 points per game over the last five games, with the highest shooting percentage across the board. Their offense has been lethal, especially from deep, and they rank second in fast break points.
• Aces Defense: The Aces have tightened their defense lately, allowing the fewest points per game and the second-lowest shooting percentage. However, most of their recent matchups have been against weaker offensive teams, so the Fever’s hot streak could test them.

Best Bet:

• Lean: Vegas -5.5 – The Aces have covered in five straight, and despite the Fever’s offensive surge, the Aces’ defensive strength and deeper roster give them an edge. Be cautious, though, as Vegas has burned bettors before.
• Player Prop: Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) Points + Rebounds Over 23.5 – Mitchell has exceeded this mark in 9 of her last 10 games, including against bottom-five defenses like Vegas. She’s been a consistent offensive threat, and her rebounding adds value here.

Injury Impact:

• Asia Wilson’s potential minutes limit adds uncertainty. If she’s restricted, Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray should shoulder more of the scoring load, making Plum’s points prop another intriguing option.

Washington Mystics vs. Chicago Sky

• Spread: Mystics +2.5
• Over/Under: 160.5

Key Insights:

• Shakira Austin (Mystics) Out: Without Austin’s presence in the paint, the Mystics will need to rely heavily on Elena Delle Donne and their backcourt for scoring and defensive rebounds.
• Angel Reese (Sky) Out: The Sky are missing one of their top rebounders and interior defenders in Reese, which will hurt them on the boards and in second-chance points. They’ll also be without Diamond DeShields, which limits their offensive firepower.

Best Bet:

• Bet: Mystics +2.5 – Washington has been playing better basketball lately, covering in seven of their last eight games. Meanwhile, the Sky are dealing with significant injuries, which should give the Mystics the edge, especially on defense.
• Total: Under 160.5 – Both teams have hit the under frequently in recent matchups, and with key players out, I expect scoring to be at a premium.

Injury Impact:

• Angel Reese’s absence will be critical. Chicago’s ability to dominate on the offensive glass is now in question. Expect the Mystics to control the boards, and look for Elena Delle Donne to take advantage.

Seattle Storm vs. Los Angeles Sparks

• Spread: Storm -10
• Over/Under: 164.5

Key Insights:

• Sparks on a Back-to-Back: Los Angeles is playing on no rest after two tough games against the Sun. Fatigue could be an issue, especially late in the game.
• Struggling Offenses: Both teams have been among the worst offensively since the break. Seattle ranks last in three-point shooting percentage, while the Sparks are fourth-worst. Expect a slow-paced game with scoring difficulties on both sides.

Best Bet:

• Bet: Sparks +10 – Seattle hasn’t shown they can dominate, especially on the road. The Sparks have covered as double-digit dogs 11 times this season, and despite their offensive struggles, they should keep it close.
• Total: Over 164.5 – Despite both teams’ poor offenses, their head-to-head matchups this season have gone over this number. Seattle’s defensive lapses may allow the Sparks to find scoring opportunities.

Player Prop:

• Ezi Magbegor (Storm) Points + Rebounds Over 17.5 – While Magbegor’s recent form hasn’t been stellar, she thrives against the Sparks, who rank dead last in points and rebounds allowed to centers. Her ability to control the glass and score inside makes this a value play, especially at plus money.

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