WNBA Best Bets Thursday 10/10/24

The WNBA Finals tip off today with the Minnesota Lynx taking on the New York Liberty in Game 1. Both teams have shown their prowess throughout the season, setting up what promises to be a thrilling series.

With New York being the favorites and having homecourt advantage, we need to dig deep to find value in the betting markets for this matchup. Let’s break down the best bets for today, taking into consideration team dynamics, key player performances, and statistical insights.

Game Preview: Lynx vs Liberty

• Game Time: October 10, 8:00 PM ET
• Location: Barclays Center, New York
• Spread: Liberty -6.5
• Total: 159.5

The Liberty enter as 6.5-point favorites, but that line might not fully reflect how close this series could be. The Lynx have matched up well against the Liberty this season, winning three out of four meetings. New York, however, dominated in their most recent contest, which could provide insight into how Game 1 unfolds.

Key Betting Insights and Player Analysis

1. Liberty to Cover the Spread (-6.5)

• The Liberty have been consistent all season long, finishing with a 32-8 record and securing the top seed. They’ve been dominant at home and have shown they can take care of business against top-tier opponents.
• Why I Like It: New York boasts a balanced attack led by Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, giving them an edge in the paint. Stewart dropped 38 points in their last meeting against the Lynx, and if she gets support from her teammates, the Liberty could run away with this one.
• Key Stat: The Liberty’s defensive rating is second-best in the league, and they’ve held the Lynx to under 40% shooting in their last two meetings.

2. Breanna Stewart Over 24.5 Points

• Stewart has been the go-to scorer for the Liberty, averaging over 20 points per game in the regular season. Her ability to score from both the perimeter and inside makes her a tough matchup for the Lynx.
• Why I Like It: Stewart’s usage rate skyrockets in big games. She’s the focal point of the Liberty’s offense, and with the Lynx struggling to contain her in their previous meetings, I expect her to have another high-scoring night.
• Key Stat: Stewart scored 30+ points in two of the four matchups against Minnesota this season. With Game 1 setting the tone, look for Stewart to be aggressive from the start.

3. Total Points: Over 159.5

• Both teams rank in the top four for offensive efficiency, and their games have often gone over the set total this season.
• Why I Like It: New York’s pace of play combined with their 3-point shooting makes this a prime spot for an over. The Liberty averaged over 85 points per game in the regular season, while the Lynx showed they can match pace when needed.
• Key Stat: Three of the four games between these teams this season hit the over, with a combined average of 165 points per game.

4. Player Prop: Nafisa Collier Under 21.5 Points

• Collier is a key player for Minnesota, but she has struggled against New York’s defensive schemes. The Liberty have the personnel to limit her scoring opportunities, especially with their length in the paint.
• Why I Like It: New York has held Collier under 20 points in three of their four meetings. With the Liberty’s strong perimeter and interior defense, Collier could face another tough night.
• Key Stat: In her last six games against New York, Collier has scored fewer than 22 points in five of those matchups. The Liberty’s defense ranks top-three in points allowed to opposing forwards, making this a solid play.

Final Thoughts

The Liberty are looking to make a statement in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals, and while Minnesota has been competitive in the season series, New York’s depth and star power give them the upper hand. Breanna Stewart should have another monster game, and if New York can control the pace, they should cover the spread comfortably. Meanwhile, look for a high-scoring affair that pushes the total over.

If you’re looking for a strong bet to kick off the WNBA Finals, consider the Liberty to cover, Breanna Stewart’s points over, and the total going over 159.5.

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Best of luck with your bets today, and enjoy Game 1 of the WNBA Finals!