Premier League Betting Odds, Soccer Picks & Predictions for Matchday 5: Southampton-Chelsea & West Ham-Tottenham

The 2022-23 English Premier League season is here! OddsJam’s soccer expert @NorthSideCapper breaks down his top picks for Matchday 5 of the season.

EPL Matchday 5 Picks & Predictions

Southampton vs. Chelsea Pick: Over 2.5 | -150 at BetRivers

Tuesday, August 30 | 2:45 p.m. ET

We have a short turnaround with Matchday 5 taking place a mere three days after Matchday 4. Squads will be exhausted and those with thinner teams in terms of numbers and quality will feel it the most on the pitch. Often, exhaustion translates into goals and that is what we are expecting today in England.

Southampton has had a mixed start to the season with a couple of wins mixed in with some losses. Their most recent performance was a disappointing one, suffering a 1-0 loss at St. Mary’s Stadium to a struggling Manchester United. Unable to get on the scoresheet for the first time this season could certainly raise some concerns for the Saints faithful but not for us.

Their blank in Matchday 4 was the first time in nine competitive matches they failed to hit the back of the net and only the second time in their last 20 competitive home matches they failed to do so. (Interestingly enough, the other was against this Chelsea squad back on April 9.)

Chelsea showed some mental toughness last time out against Leicester City. Reduced to 10 men in the 28th minute as a result of a Conor Gallagher red card, they built a 2-0 lead on the back of a couple of Raheem Sterling goals. The match finished 2-1 in favor of the Blues and demonstrated the depth and talent within the squad.

Much like their opponent, Chelsea themselves have experienced mixed results to the start of the year compiling two wins, a loss and a draw. Most teams wouldn’t complain about such results, but these are one of the league favorites. The issue hasn’t been their ability to score goals, but it’s been on the backend conceding in three of their four Premiership matches. It goes against what we have come to expect of this defensively solid team manager Thomas Tuchel has built since his arrival.

The head-to-head history has certainly been in favor of Chelsea — they have not lost in their last five encounters — but we do see an ability within Southampton to remain competitive.

The Saints have scored in four of the last five and taken three draws from those encounters (losing twice). More importantly, the over 2.5 has covered in four of those five with the same applying to when the matches are played at St. Mary’s (covering in four of the last five). Considering the short turnaround and the history between the sides, we should once again see the over 2.5 cover.

West Ham vs. Tottenham Pick: Over 2.5 | -136 at BetRivers

Wednesday, August 31 | 2:45 p.m. ET

Something has got to give here. West Ham are playing like a side still trying to get their playing legs underneath them and it appears to be taking longer than anyone could have imagined.

Last Matchday’s 1-0 win over Aston Villa was the first goal West Ham have scored in the Premiership this season, going goalless in their previous three matches. Understandably, they have had to balance their Europa Conference Qualifying matches in between their domestic schedule, which has created a lot of congestion early on.

Either way, they aren’t the only squad in Europe having to do so. Things won’t get easier today as they welcome the red-hot Tottenham Spurs to the London Stadium in a matchup that they have struggled with over the years.

Speaking of those Spurs — they picked up another impressive win on the road in their 2-0 victory over Nottingham Forest. That is now three wins out of four with a lone draw against Chelsea after a 96th-minute Harry Kane strike to share the spoils.

The Spurs entered this season, like many seasons, as a squad on the verge of breaking out and competing for the EPL League title. Led by Italian coach Antonio Conte, the Spurs are doing something we haven’t really seen from them in recent seasons — be defensively stable while conceding 3 goals in their four matches (two of them against Chelsea).

There has never been an issue or concern about their ability in the final third, and that holds true so far this season with Harry Kane and Son Heung-min leading the way to nine goals in their four matches.

What is often an action-packed affair should remain that way today. Having covered the over 2.5 in four of the last five, we see no other scenario today with the Spurs looking to remain hot and deadly in front of goal. Meanwhile, the Hammers are looking for ways to carry that momentum from Matchday 4 into the coming weeks. Take the over 2.5 with confidence and enjoy your earnings.