Daily MLS Predictions & Picks – MLS Bets Today: Target the Over for Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United
Our MLS expert breaks down his top plays and predictions for today’s slate of games below! Find out the picks @NorthSideCapper is eyeing.
MLS Best Bets Today – September 14, 2022
Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United Pick: Over 2.5 | -180 at BetRivers
6 p.m. ET
Both squads enter this matchup in the thick of the playoff picture. Orlando City occupy the fifth spot with 42 points but are only 4 points safe of eighth-place New England Revolution. While Orlando are currently in the playoffs, Atlanta are not — they sit in the 10th spot with 36 points but a mere 5 points adrift of seventh-placed Columbus Crew.
There’s no other way to say this — it’s a big game for both squads.
Orlando’s five-game unbeaten streak in all competitions came to a crashing halt last match day against the Philadelphia Union in a 5-1 beat down. While it probably doesn’t make Orlando feel any better, they aren’t the only ones to fall victim to the Union’s relentless offense in recent weeks.
Prior to last week’s loss, Orlando had been on quite an offensive explosion of their own compiling totals of 1,2,2,3 and 3 in their five victories, and will certainly be looking to get back to those ways against a club in Atlanta who do everything but defend their goal.
Atlanta travel to the Exploria Stadium off the back of an impressive 4-2 victory over Toronto FC. Prior to that victory, Atlanta had been in a bit of a slump losing 4-1 to the Union and 2-1 to the Timbers.
Even in defeat, the one constant? Offense. This is a squad that has scored in eight of their last 10 matches, totaling 16 goals and scoring 2 goals or more in 50% of those 10. A note of interest for over bettors — Atlanta have scored on the road in eight of their last 10 with the over 2.5 cashing in eight of those 10 as well.
Taking both sides’ form in the final third into consideration, combined with their home/away splits in relation to the over 2.5, this matchup has all the makings of one where we see goals. It would be hard to suggest otherwise considering the importance of this fixture for both sides as the season winds down, neither having cemented a spot in the top seven of the Eastern Conference Standings.
We’re riding with over 2.5 — let’s cash.
MLS Best Bets Today – September 13, 2022
Inter Miami CF vs. Columbus Crew Pick: Over 2.5 | -124 at BetRivers
8 p.m. ET
What a massive fixture this is for Inter Miami. They are 5 points back of their opponents the Columbus Crew who currently occupy the seventh and final playoff spot. Failure to collect 3 points for Inter Miami will all but surely kill any realistic hopes of catching the Crew before season’s end.
Inter Miami haven’t done themselves any favors recently — losers of three straight on the road — conceding seven in that span and off the back of a 3-1 loss to the Chicago Fire are morale killers.
Fortunately for Inter, they are kicking off at the DRV PNK Stadium where they have been so impressive. Having only lost one of their last 10 MLS matches on their turf, and scoring 2 goals or more in nine of those 10 is exactly the spark and motivation the fans can get behind to cheer their squad on as they will look for the positive home trends to continue for at least one more match.
The Columbus Crew have done the exact opposite of Inter Miami. They have done themselves a ton of favors over the last couple of months to strengthen their position in the standings giving them genuine hope of making the playoffs.
The Crew lost a single match in their last 10 (2-1 to Montreal), bringing their tally on the season to 41 points. Not only are they collecting points, but they are also scoring goals. They amassed 14 goals in their last 10 played and failed to score in only two of those 10. More impressively, they have scored 16 goals in their last 10 road matches, again failing to get on the scoresheet a mere two times.
Given the importance of this match to both sides, it would be hard to imagine they don’t go for it from the start in an effort to take an early advantage. Naturally, this leaves a lot of room and opportunity for further chances, and looking back on both of these squads’ forms in front of goal, producing in the final third shouldn’t be much of a cause for concern.
Not to mention the over 2.5 has hit in nine of Inter’s last 10 home matches and seven of Columbus’ last 10 road matches.
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MLS Best Bets Today – September 10, 2022
Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC Pick: Both Teams To Score | -177 at BetRivers
1 p.m. ET
I’m not sure what has happened to New York City FC, but their form has fallen completely off a cliff. This was a club entering the season with championship expectations — their early season success has ensured their recent form hasn’t hindered their playoff chances though. They continue to sit comfortably in the top seven, but even that comfort is slowly dwindling with four matches remaining while they sit 6 points above the eighth spot (New England Revolution).
Even while they continue to struggle, the one constant has been their ability to find the back of the net. In their last 10 matches, New York has managed to score at least one goal in eight of those fixtures while doing so in eight of their last 10 on the road. So while their results point-wise haven’t been there, it seems we can count on this squad to get us a goal and contribute to our wager.
Charlotte FC’s season is all but over — the task is just too tall mathematically. They would need to climb over five clubs and make up a 7-point differential. Pride is on the line and even that hasn’t appeared to motivate this bunch enough. They lost four of the last five matches and failed to score in three of those.
In truth, if it wasn’t for New York’s poor form, some more caution would be thrown to this wager given Charlotte’s struggles in the final third, but their ability to find the net when at home on a more consistent basis has helped calm those nerves having done so in six of their last nine (66%).
Neither squad is in good shape, but with New York’s pressing need for points, we’re expecting them to be a bit more aggressive in the search for goals. That could benefit this Charlotte squad that has been struggling to find space on their own.
In front of their home fans as the season winds down, Charlotte gives Bank of America Stadium something to cheer about and bags at least one to give us a winning ticket.
Atlanta United vs. Toronto FC Pick: Over 3 | -150 at BetRivers
7:30 p.m. ET
This should be exciting. Two clubs fighting for their playoff lives with no understanding of defense and an appetite for goals. Atlanta and Toronto sit 10th and 11th in the Eastern Conference Standings, respectively, with a little bit of work to do if either intends on catching seventh-placed FC Cincinnati for that final playoff spot.
Atlanta enter this match off back-to-back losses, the most recent being a disappointing 2-1 loss to the Portland Timbers where they never really found their footing until a late Josef Martinez goal to get them on the board. Having lost three of their last four, Atlanta must approach this as a “do or die” scenario and leave it all on the pitch.
Unfortunately, while they have been producing in the final third, their backline has been helping their opponents just as equally. The Atlanta backline has conceded 12 goals in the last five matches, and guess who’s on the other side of the pitch? That’s right — the Italian duo of Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi. Not exactly who they wanted to see.
Speaking of — Insigne has been scoring at will with 4 goals in the last three games while his compatriot Bernardeschi has scored 6 goals in the last seven games. The Italians have been everything Toronto had hoped for and they will need them to be on their game again tonight if their slim playoff hopes are to remain alive.
Four of the last five Toronto FC matches have hit the number of 3, while all five of Atlanta’s last five have seen 3 or more goals combined. Interestingly enough, when facing off head to head we don’t often see a collection of goals. In the last five head-to-head meetings, only one has seen 3 goals or more and that was their most recent encounter back on June 25 resulting in a 2-1 Toronto FC win.
Regardless of the historical data, we can not overlook the teams’ recent form in the final third and given neither side has a backline to contain the other team’s forwards, we’re anticipating goals and are riding with the over 3.
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