With the NFL regular season beginning on Thursday, September 8th with the Super Bowl champion Rams hosting the Bills, now is a great time to look at the NFL win totals landscape for each team.
Betting on teams over/under win totals is a fun way to back your favorite team or fade your least favorite ones and having a season-long rooting interest.
So, naturally there is a ton to dive in here, so let’s get into it.
Teams With the Highest Win Total: Bills and Buccaneers (11.5)
There is a two team tie with who has the highest win total between the Bills and the Bucs. One thing to note is that the Bills have -135 odds to hit the over, while the Bucs are only +105 towards the over.
So, technically the Bills are the betting favorite to have the most wins in the NFL with the odds taken into account.
Either way, no surprise there. Both teams have stacked rosters with elite quarterbacks, so it makes why they have the highest win total.
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Teams With the Lowest Win Total: Falcons and Texans (4.5)
Again, we have a two team tie but this time for the teams with the lowest win total. In this case, the odds reflect the Texans as a higher chance to go under the 4.5 win total, as their odds are at -110 towards the under, while the Falcons are at +100.
So, your Houston Texans are the betting favorite to have the fewest wins in the NFL, with the odds factored in.
Again, I can’t say this is too surprising. While I will admit there is some hope for Texans quarterback Davis Mills, there is still a talent issue where they are just completely devoid of really any game changing talent.
The Falcons, meanwhile, I do not see any hope. They are my vote to have the worst record in the NFL for this upcoming season.
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Best Bet to Go Over Their Win Total: Packers Over 10.5 | -160 odds at FanDuel
The Packers are coming off three straight 13 win seasons since head coach Matt LaFleur took over. To me, it’s hard to project them to win 3 fewer games than they won last year.
Despite having a first place schedule in general, they are only middle of the pack (no pun intended) in terms of strength of schedule, with the 15th easiest schedule this upcoming season.
Obviously, the biggest question mark surrounding the Packers is how they are going to replace all-world wide receiver Davante Adams, who was traded to the Raiders.
Here is a fun stat, though: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are 10-0 without Adams since he was drafted in 2015. This is excluding a meaningless week 17 game in 2018 in which Rodgers only attempted 5 passes.
Best Bet to Go Under Their Win Total: Commanders Under 8.5 | -170 odds at FanDuel
This one is pretty simple. Carson Wentz was the worst quarterback in the entire NFL in 2020, was then traded to the Colts after that season, where he only lasted one year and was once again a bottom-tier NFL QB and was traded again.
Wentz was such a disaster in one year in Indianapolis that Colts owner Jim Irsay ignored phone calls from Wentz, who made multiple attempts to reach out to Irsay to clear the air after the season.
Colts head coach Frank Reich had to formally apologize to Irsay and Chris Ballard, the Colts GM, for pushing for the Wentz trade in the first place.
The Commanders infamously traded for Wentz after all this occurred, and he is now their starting quarterback.
So, we can categorize Wentz as a train-wreck quarterback. The organization he’s going to? The biggest train-wreck in all of sports.
We don’t need to rehash the what feels like thousands of scandals the Washington Football Commander Team have gone through in owner Dan Snyders tenure, but it’s bad.
Add all that up, and there is almost no fathomable scenario in which the Commanders end up with a winning record and 9 or more wins.
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