Saints vs. Falcons Odds, Picks & Predictions: Target Total in Week 1 AFC South Battle

Despite being a rivalry game between two NFC South foes, this matchup admittedly does not bring a ton of juice. The Falcons are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, while the Saints are still figuring out life without Drew Brees and Sean Payton.

Still, with that said, even the gross matchups present profitable betting opportunities. Let’s dive into this one.

Saints vs. Falcons Betting Odds Week 1

To truly get a sense of how far the Falcons have fallen, look no further than the odds for this game.

The Falcons are at home, facing a team that is starting a quarterback in Jameis Winston coming off a torn ACL, who also lost a Hall of Fame QB in Drew Brees and head coach in Sean Payton in back-to-back offseasons, and yet are still heavy underdogs.

It makes sense when you dig into the rosters themselves, but it is still remarkable to see how little respect the Falcons are getting from the betting markets. Granted, the Falcons were our third-worst team in our Power Rankings of all 32 NFL teams, so no disagreement here.

The Falcons won seven games last year, but even that 7-10 record is misleading. All seven of the Falcons wins were by one-score. In the offseason, they traded away veteran QB Matt Ryan, leaving the Falcons either with journeyman Marcus Mariota or a rookie third-round pick in Desmond Ritter as their starting QB.

While both QBs have looked decent in the preseason, the regular season is obviously a different animal. As of this writing, the Falcons are planning on starting Mariota as their QB, but the guess here is that they will move onto Ritter at some point during the year.

Surrounding the quarterback is poor roster, to be frank. PFF gives the Falcons the fifth-worst offensive line and the sixth-worst skill positions in the NFL. Oh, and they also had the third-worst defense in the NFL, according to DVOA.

So, for those of you counting at home, they figure to be weak at quarterback, offensive line, skill positions, and on defense. But other than that …

Now, looking at New Orleans doesn’t exactly scream juggernaut either. The Saints had won 10+ games in four straight years from 2017-2020, but that streak ended in 2021. Granted, they still won nine games and had a winning record, but they were clearly not the same team.

They had a stellar defense, finishing third in defensive DVOA, but struggled mightily on offense. Whether it was Winston, Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian at QB, the Saints could not do much on offense.

While they should still be good on defense, they might take a step back after losing two of their starting safeties in the offseason in Malcolm Jenkins (retirement) and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (trade). Still, they have enough talent that even if they do take a step back, it is unlikely they fall out of the top 10.

On offense they figure to be just as bad as last year, if not worse now that Payton is retired. They will be starting Winston again, who wasn’t exactly impressive in the six full games he played in last year. He completed less than 60% of his passes, while never eclipsing 300 yards in any game.

He did throw 14 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions, but that stat is more of a fluke than representative of how Winston played. I would project the Saints to be a bottom-10 offense in 2022.

In terms of handicapping this specific game, despite saying everything about the Saints offense, the over is actually the value play here. The OddsJam Line prices this total at 42.5, while actually favoring the over, giving it a 50.46% chance of the over hitting at that 42.5 number.

Thanks to line shopping on the OddsJam NFL odds page, we can get this total at 42 at only -110 odds at WynnBET. Be sure to check out the lines yourself before locking in your bet to get the most value possible!

Saints vs. Falcons Betting Pick: Over 42 | -110 at WynnBET