NFL Best Bets Broncos at Saints TNF Week 7

Thursday Night Football is back, and this week we’ve got an intriguing matchup between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints. Both teams are dealing with injuries, but there are still plenty of opportunities to find value in this game.

Whether you’re looking to bet on the spread, total, or dive into some player props, I’ve got you covered with all the insights you need to make informed picks. Let’s break down the key matchups, identify where the value lies, and give you the best bets for tonight’s game.

Buckle up—it’s going to be a fun one!

1. Broncos at Saints

• Game Line: Saints +3
• Total: 37.5
• Lean: Saints +3
• Why:
  • The Saints are underdogs here, but this game is shaping up to be a close one. The Broncos have been solid defensively, but their offense has been inconsistent, especially against stronger defenses. The Saints’ defense forces turnovers, ranking 2nd in the league for interceptions, and Denver’s QB Bo Nix is prone to mistakes.
  • New Orleans will likely stick with Spencer Rattler, but their offense, led by Alvin Kamara, can score quickly, even when banged up. This keeps them competitive.
  • Key Insight: Denver’s secondary is dealing with injuries, giving the Saints’ passing attack an advantage despite their own injury concerns.

2. Bo Nix (Broncos) – Longest Rush Over 10.5 Yards

• Suggested Bet: Bo Nix Over 10.5 Longest Rush
• Why:
  • Nix has hit this rushing prop in 4 of his last 5 games. Even though the Saints don’t bring much pressure, their defense allows mobile QBs like Nix to scramble when necessary.
  • Nix’s rushing attempts have increased recently, and the Saints’ pass rush ranks low in sacks and QB hits. This lack of pressure gives Nix opportunities to break off a long run, making this over very appealing.
  • Key Insight: Nix’s ability to escape when hurried is key here. With the Saints’ pressure coming up short, expect Nix to take advantage and break one.

3. Alvin Kamara (Saints) – Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards

• Suggested Bet: Alvin Kamara Over 15.5 Longest Rush
• Why:
  • Despite the Saints’ offensive line being dinged up, Kamara is a dynamic player who can still pop off for a long run. Denver’s defense has allowed opposing lead backs to break long runs in 4 of their last 6 games.
  • Kamara’s volume has been high, and while his overall yardage may not stand out recently, this bet only takes one big play. Given Denver’s weaker run defense compared to their secondary, Kamara has a great shot to hit this number.
  • Key Insight: Kamara’s elusiveness and ability to make something out of nothing make this a strong bet, even in a tough matchup.

4. Javonte Williams (Broncos) – Over 12.5 Rushing Attempts

• Suggested Bet: Javonte Williams Over 12.5 Rushing Attempts
• Why:
  • Williams has been steadily increasing his workload as the season progresses. With Denver facing a Saints defense that struggles against the run, the Broncos should lean heavily on Williams early.
  • The Saints rank 26th in rush defense DVOA, making this a prime spot for Williams to see plenty of carries. Even if he splits work with other backs, the game plan should focus on controlling the clock and keeping the Saints’ offense off the field.
  • Key Insight: This bet banks on volume over yardage. With the Saints’ run defense struggling, expect Denver to commit to the ground game, giving Williams plenty of opportunities to carry the rock.

5. Bo Nix (Broncos) – Over 0.5 Interceptions

• Suggested Bet: Bo Nix Over 0.5 Interceptions
• Why:
  • Nix has thrown 5 interceptions this season, and while he has been improving, the Saints’ defense thrives on forcing mistakes from opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans ranks 2nd in the league for interceptions, averaging nearly two per game.
  • Nix’s turnover-worthy throw percentage is one of the highest in the league, and with the Saints’ defensive backs known for making big plays, it’s likely Nix will throw at least one pick in this game.
  • Key Insight: The Saints have a knack for forcing turnovers, and Nix’s tendency for risky throws makes this a solid bet.

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That wraps up today’s best NFL bets. Whether you’re tailing or fading, remember to lock in the best odds and make informed decisions. Let’s cash those tickets!