NFL Best Bets 11/11/24 MNF Dolphins vs Rams

Welcome to our NFL Best Bets for today! We’re diving deep into the Monday Night Football matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Rams. This Week 10 faceoff brings intriguing lines and player props with potential value for DFS and betting enthusiasts.

Let’s break down the key plays, with suggested bets, stats, and insights to back up each pick.

1. Los Angeles Rams -2.5

Suggested Bet: Rams -2.5

• Key Insight: The Rams are rolling with a three-game winning streak, now at 4-4, and playing at home with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back healthy.
• Why It’s a Best Bet:
  • The Rams’ offense has momentum, and Stafford has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 17th in points allowed per game.
  • The Rams’ defensive front piled up seven sacks last week. Against a Miami offensive line missing Austin Jackson, there’s a strong case for them to pressure Tua Tagovailoa.
  • Tyreek Hill’s questionable status impacts Miami’s explosiveness. If Hill is limited, Miami will rely more on the run, playing into the Rams’ defensive strengths.
• Quick Stat: McVay is 11-7 ATS following a divisional win, showcasing his ability to prepare well in situations like this.

2. Matthew Stafford Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-135)

Suggested Bet: Stafford Over 249.5 Passing Yards

• Key Insight: Stafford has cleared this mark in three of his last four games, and with Nacua and Kupp both active, he has the weapons to hit 250+ yards.
• Why It’s a Best Bet:
  • Miami’s secondary hasn’t been dominant, giving up three passing touchdowns last week.
  • With Tyreek Hill potentially out, the Dolphins’ offense could be less efficient, giving Stafford more opportunities to extend drives.
• Quick Stat: Stafford has averaged 275 yards in games where both Kupp and Nacua play.

3. Kyren Williams Over 20.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)

Suggested Bet: Williams Over 20.5 Rushing Attempts

• Key Insight: Williams has exceeded this attempt total in four straight games. In a likely close, low-scoring game, look for the Rams to rely on the run.
• Why It’s a Best Bet:
  • With potential rain in California, expect the Rams to go conservative and control the game with Williams on the ground.
  • Williams has been the workhorse for the Rams, and if Miami’s offense struggles without Hill, expect a ground-heavy approach to grind out the win.
• Quick Stat: Williams has averaged 23 carries per game over his last four outings.

4. Cooper Kupp Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

Suggested Bet: Kupp Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

• Key Insight: Kupp is an elite receiver, and Miami’s secondary doesn’t have a strong answer for his route-running and ability to find space.
• Why It’s a Best Bet:
  • Even with Jaylen Ramsey in the Dolphins’ secondary, Kupp is savvy enough to exploit the zone and rack up yardage on quick outs and slants.
  • He’s consistently targeted heavily by Stafford, especially with Nacua potentially drawing some attention away.
• Quick Stat: Kupp averages 87.5 receiving yards in games where he’s targeted at least 10 times.

5. Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 Completions (-130)

Suggested Bet: Tua Over 21.5 Completions

• Key Insight: Tua has been forced to throw more this season, and despite some inconsistency, he’s hitting this mark in three of his last four games.
• Why It’s a Best Bet:
  • With the Rams applying pressure up front, Tua may have to rely on short, quick passes to get the ball out, which could lead to higher completion numbers.
  • If Hill is limited, Tua will need to spread the ball around more, likely resulting in higher completions.
• Quick Stat: Tua averages 22.3 completions when playing against defenses with an average of one or fewer sacks per game.

6. Raheem Mostert Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Suggested Bet: Mostert Over 35.5 Rushing Yards

• Key Insight: Mostert has been a consistent ground producer and could see increased touches if Hill’s status limits Miami’s air attack.
• Why It’s a Best Bet:
  • The Rams have been vulnerable to outside runs, which fits Mostert’s explosive play style.
  • Mostert has gone over this total in three of his last four games, showcasing his consistency.
• Quick Stat: Mostert has averaged 45 rushing yards per game over his last four starts.

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