MLB Best Bets Monday 10/14/24

It’s another exciting day of MLB playoff action, and we’ve got two matchups to break down, along with a couple of player props that stand out as strong betting opportunities.

I’ll walk you through each game, explaining why I’m leaning toward specific bets based on the pitching matchups, recent performance trends, and hitting stats.

Plus, we’ll dive into a couple of player props to keep an eye on. Let’s get into it!

Game 1: Dodgers vs. Mets – Game 2 of the Series

• Suggested Bet: Dodgers Moneyline (-140)

The Dodgers came out firing in Game 1, securing a 9-4 win and proving once again that their bats are red-hot. They’ll look to continue that momentum in Game 2, and despite not having the pitching advantage they did in Game 1, they still hold the upper hand here in several key areas.

Why the Dodgers are the Play:

• Dodgers’ Offense: The Dodgers have been electric, especially against lefties like Shawn Manaea. Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers rank:
  • 2nd in Average
  • 1st in WRC+
  • 1st in OPS, ISO, and Slugging
    That firepower will be hard for the Mets to counter, especially since Manaea, while solid recently, is facing a lineup that’s been lethal.
• Momentum Matters: The Dodgers dominated in Game 1, and though the Mets may have a slight starting pitching advantage, the Dodgers’ bullpen and bats remain too strong to ignore. The Dodgers thrive in these situations, and the energy in LA could propel them to another win.
• Key Insight: The Mets’ bats have been inconsistent, and while they’re capable of clutch hits, they’ve been up and down. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have been consistently dangerous, and that makes them the safer bet.

Game 2: Yankees vs. Guardians – Game 1 of the Series

• Suggested Bet: Yankees Moneyline (-160)

The Yankees are coming off a solid series win against the Royals, while the Guardians are riding high after upsetting the Tigers in five games. This game has all the makings of a tight contest, but the Yankees have a few key advantages that give them the edge.

Why the Yankees are the Play:

• Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodón gets the nod for the Yankees, and while he’s had some ups and downs, he’s been solid overall. Alex Cobb, on the other hand, has struggled against this Yankees lineup. In 83 plate appearances against the Yankees’ current roster, Cobb has:
  • .288 Average Against
  • 10.8% Walk Rate
  • 405 wOBA Against That’s not the kind of stat line you want heading into a postseason matchup against a lineup with as much firepower as the Yankees.
• Yankees’ Offense: While Cleveland has been surprisingly good against lefties, the Yankees are still the better overall offense, and Cobb’s struggles against this roster could be the difference.
• Key Insight: Cleveland might have momentum on their side, but it’s hard to come down from an emotional high like their Game 5 win against Detroit. The Yankees, meanwhile, have been steady and should be able to handle their business at home.

Player Prop 1:

Francisco Alvarez – Over 0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-115)

Alvarez has been consistent, hitting in 8 of his last 10 games, and has found ways to contribute even when he doesn’t get a hit. Against the Dodgers’ bullpen opener Ryan Brasier, Alvarez has a solid chance to get on base, score, or drive in a run.

Key Points:

• Alvarez is hitting 71% in away games this season.
• Brasier, the Dodgers’ opener, has struggled at times against right-handed hitters like Alvarez.
• If the juice on the hits/runs/RBIs prop feels too heavy, consider Over 0.5 Total Bases at a lower price.

Player Prop 2:

Juan Soto – Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+140)

Soto is on fire right now, and his numbers against Alex Cobb are impressive:

• 636 Average in 12 plate appearances against Cobb.
• Soto has 7 hits, 2 home runs, and 4 RBIs in those at-bats, and his strikeout rate is down to just 16%.

With the Yankees’ offense likely to pressure Cobb early, Soto should have multiple chances to drive in runs and score.

Key Points:

• Cobb’s numbers against left-handed hitters jump significantly, with a higher batting average and home runs allowed.
• Soto has been excelling against right-handed pitching, making this a great spot to back him.

Start your 7 Day Free Trial Now

Maximize your betting and fantasy picks with Oddsjam, designed to help you quickly identify the most reliable bets in today’s games. Unlock your betting potential with industry-leading tools like:

• Promo Finder – Find the best available promos.
• Arbitrage Bets – Exploit market inefficiencies.
• Positive Expected Value (+EV) Bets – Make smarter, profitable bets.

Sign up today for a 7-day free trial and start taking your bets to the next level. With 100+ tutorial videos and free coaching sessions, Oddsjam has everything you need to stay ahead of the competition.

Good luck with today’s bets! Let’s keep that momentum rolling.