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NBA Best Bets Tuesday 10/29/24
AP Photos
Welcome back to another edition of NBA Best Bets for today’s slate! It’s a small four-game lineup, but there’s still plenty of value to be found. I’ll break down each game, giving you my favorite bets and the reasoning behind them.
My goal is to keep things simple, so expect straightforward insights that’ll help you make more informed bets. Let’s dive in!
Today’s Best Bets
Game 1: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Key Insights:
- Minnesota Defense: The Timberwolves have been locking down on the perimeter early this season, ranking among the top 10 in defensive efficiency. That’s crucial when facing Dallas, a team reliant on three-point shooting led by Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving.
- Rest Advantage: Minnesota has had more rest, while Dallas is coming off a back-to-back after facing Utah last night. The fresh legs should help the Timberwolves control the pace and tempo.
- Matchup Details: The Mavericks have struggled to protect the paint, while the Timberwolves have been vulnerable there. However, Minnesota’s perimeter defense has the edge, giving them an upper hand in limiting Dallas’s key scorers.
Why Bet Minnesota: Minnesota’s rested, their defense is strong, and they’re playing at home. Even with some weaknesses inside, the Timberwolves’ advantage on the perimeter makes them a good bet to cover the spread.
Player Prop: Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made
Key Insights:
- Volume Play: Edwards has been taking a massive 13.3 three-point attempts per game, converting at a respectable 38%.
- Dallas Defense: Dallas has allowed plenty of three-point attempts to opposing guards this season, a trend that bodes well for Edwards.
- Role Increase: With increased shooting volume and a favorable matchup, Edwards’ over on three-pointers becomes a solid bet.
Why Bet on Edwards: Edwards is taking more shots this season, and with Dallas’s weaker three-point defense, he has a good chance to hit four or more tonight.
Game 2: Brooklyn Nets vs. Denver Nuggets
Key Insights:
- Denver’s Slow Pace: Denver typically plays at a slower pace, which benefits them in back-to-back situations like tonight. Their efficiency on both ends should be enough to outmatch Brooklyn, even on limited rest.
- Nets’ Recent Form: Brooklyn is coming off a win against Milwaukee, but they’ve struggled to maintain defensive consistency. Denver’s size and strength in the paint, led by Nikola Jokić, could expose the Nets’ weaknesses inside.
- Depth Advantage: Despite the overtime win last night, Denver’s depth gives them an edge against a Brooklyn team still finding its identity.
Why Bet Denver: Denver’s controlled pace, interior strength, and depth are enough to handle the Nets on the road, even with fatigue from last night.
Game 3: Utah Jazz vs. Sacramento Kings
Key Insights:
- Back-to-Back Factor: Both teams are coming off games last night, which often results in slower paces and lower scores. Historically, these teams have struggled to score in back-to-back spots.
- Sacramento’s Rim Attack: The Kings excel at attacking the paint, while the Jazz have struggled defensively inside. However, fatigue could limit both teams’ ability to push the tempo.
- Utah’s Defense: The Jazz have been inconsistent on defense, but they might be able to limit Sacramento’s perimeter scoring, keeping the total under 235.
Why Bet the Under: Two teams on short rest usually means a slower game. Combined with a high total of 235, the under becomes appealing, as both teams could have trouble maintaining offensive efficiency.
Game 4: Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Key Insights:
- Injury Report: Golden State is missing Steph Curry, which significantly hampers their offensive firepower. Andrew Wiggins is also questionable, further affecting the Warriors’ chances.
- Pelicans’ Bounce-Back Spot: New Orleans is coming off an embarrassing loss to Portland, making this a potential rebound game. With Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have enough weapons to cover the spread.
- Golden State’s Youth: Without Steph, the Warriors’ young core will be tested. Draymond Green can hold down the defense, but their offense will likely suffer.
Why Bet New Orleans: With their full arsenal and a need to bounce back, the Pelicans are set up well to take advantage of a Curry-less Warriors team.
Player Prop: Brandon Ingram Over 23.5 Points + Assists
Key Insights:
- Usage Spike: Ingram’s usage should increase as he’s expected to lead the offense against a shorthanded Warriors defense.
- Performance History: Ingram has cleared this line in two of his last three games, making this a strong bet tonight.
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Let’s cash in tonight!
