Rockies vs. Padres Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions: The Yu Darvish Prop to Target Today

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Rockies vs. Padres Betting Odds

4:10 p.m. ET

Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres will host the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park for the first game of a doubleheader today. I’m backing a dominant starting pitcher due for positive regression against a weak road offense in this game. 

Darvish has looked good for San Diego through 19 starts this season. He owns a 9-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. He’s also posted a 3.68 xFIP, which is on par with what he recorded last season. 

Darvish enters this game with an 8.8 K/9, which leaves much to be desired. He’s recorded 24.6% strikeout, 11.4% swinging-strike and 30.1% CSW rates in 2022. The right-hander is due for positive strikeout regression, though. 

Darvish ended last season with a 29.2% strikeout rate, which is nearly 5% higher than what he’s posted in 2022. His pitch mix is similar to last season, although he’s throwing his splitter a bit more than his slider, which shouldn’t truly matter for strikeouts. He also boasts nearly identical swinging-strike and CSW rates as last season. 

To put it in its simplest form, Darvish will continue to see positive strikeout regression as the season progresses. 

This has been the case in recent games. He’s recorded 9+ strikeouts in five of his last six games. He’s averaging 9 strikeouts per game over that span. He’s also posted an 11.5 K/9 or better in each of those starts. 

Darvish has been a better strikeout option at home throughout the majority of his career, and that’s the case again this season. His strikeout rate increases slightly to 26%. 

Oddly enough, the right-hander has been a better strikeout pitcher against left-handed batters throughout the 2022 season. That isn’t the case for his career, though, and I’m expecting him to start to see his strikeout rate against right-handed batters increase as he throws more. 

The most important aspect of this play is the matchup. Darvish will face off against the Colorado Rockies today. They’re striking out at the 13th-highest rate (23.2%) in the league over the last 14 days. You can’t really trust the majority of their numbers, though, as they play half of their games in Coors Field. 

If we break it down a bit more, the Rockies ranked fourth in MLB in strikeout rate (26.4%) on the road against right-handed pitching in July. They also ranked 16th in average (.234) and OPS (.697) and 17th in slugging percentage (.385) in that situation. 

The Rockies are tentatively expected to use six right-handed batters throughout their lineup, and they’ll be without Kris Bryant in this game. Essentially, this isn’t an offense that you would expect to be able to get to Darvish in this game. 

San Diego’s right-hander has thrown seven-plus innings in eight of his last 10 starts. He should be able to do that once again tonight, meaning he doesn’t need elite strikeout numbers to record 8+ strikeouts. 

It’s important to note that the Padres also recently traded MacKenzie Gore for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, leaving them with one less pitching option. This is a doubleheader, and Darvish should throw as long as he can in this game. 

Darvish has a put-away rate north of 20% with his 4-seamer, cutter, sinker, splitter and slider this season. He has a deep arsenal of pitches that he can garner whiffs with, and the Rockies aren’t savvy enough of an offense to get to him early in this game. 

Essentially, Darvish should throw deep into this game against a bad offense in a pitcher-friendly stadium. It’s relatively shocking we’re getting these odds, but it gives us an elite bet today.

Rockies vs. Padres Pick: Yu Darvish to Record 8+ Strikeouts | +122 at FanDuel