Reds vs. Brewers Player Prop Bets Today – August 6, 2022: Ashby K’s – Brewers Dominance

MLB Best Bet – August 6, 2022

Cincinnati Reds (42-63) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (58-48)

7:15 p.m. ET

Alright this one may take some convincing. Aaron Ashby is 2-9, has a high ERA and a low hit rate on this line. Oddly enough, there is still enough here for me to jump on board. 

Aaron has been a mix of bullpen and starter thus far in his career. In 33 appearances between 21 and 22, he only has 18 starts. However, he is finally stretched out, and the Brewers seem to feel comfy with him throwing 90-100 pitches. 

Ashby’s numbers are not very pretty, but the potential is very evident when you watch him. I would say the Brewers agree since they extended his contract for 5 years back in mid July. This may be his best matchup yet to showcase his ability.

While he has been inconsistent, his K numbers have been strong in his early career. He has racked up 137 K in 112.1 innings so far, including 98 in 80.2 innings this season. He is in some elite percentile: 82nd in K per inning, 96th in called strike plus whiff rate, 75th percentile in swinging strike percentage, 78th percentile in K rate, 85th percentile in whiff rate, and 78th percentile in chase rate. His slider has a 42.0% whiff rate, changeup has a 31.7% whiff rate, and curveball has a 39.6 whiff rate. 

I have targeted the Reds on several occasions, and will often do so in the last few months of the season. They average the 6th most K per game at 8.81. They have a 25.5% K rate as a team over the last 15 days. They have the 6th highest K rate vs LHP this season at 24.0%, and that has ballooned to 28.3% over the last 30 days, 2nd worst in the league. This is a terrific chance for Aaron to reward his team after the contract extension. 

Reds vs. Brewers Pick: Aaron Ashby over 6.5 strikeouts | +108 at FanDuel