Red Sox vs. Pirates Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions – August 16, 2022: Can Nick Pivetta Handle Things in Pittsburgh?

Red Sox vs. Pirates Betting Odds

7:05 p.m. ET

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox at PNC Park tonight. I’m attacking a strikeout-happy offense with a relatively new pitch mix here. 

Pivetta has enjoyed plenty of success this season. He owns an 8-9 record with a 4.51 ERA through 23 starts. His 4.19 xFIP suggests he’s throwing slightly better than that as well. 

Pivetta enters this game with an 8.6 K/9 through 129.2 innings. He also boasts 22.5% strikeout, 9.5% swinging-strike and 27.3% CSW rates this season. There’s reason to believe he could see some positive strikeout regression as he throws more innings. 

Pivetta has struggled to find strikeouts in recent games. He’s recorded 6+ strikeouts in only one of his last nine starts. This has been a relatively tough stretch, though, and he posted those 6 strikeouts against the Cleveland Guardians. 

Pivetta owns almost identical numbers at home and on the road. His strikeout rate increases very slightly to 22.9% on the road. The biggest issue with this game is that he owns a 19.6% strikeout rate with a 4.92 xFIP against left-handed batters. 

The right-hander gets a matchup against Pittsburgh, who is expected to load their lineup with left-handed batters. Kevin Newman and Ke’Bryan Hayes are the only two right-handed batters that are projected to be in the lineup tonight. 

The Pirates currently rank seventh in MLB in strikeout rate (24.6%) over the last 14 days. They’ve struggled with a .296 team wOBA over that span as well. Pivetta could throw deeper into this game if Pittsburgh continues to struggle. 

Pittsburgh is also striking out at the sixth-highest rate (24.3%) in the league against right-handed pitching since July 16. Over that span, the Pirates rank 28th in the league in average (.223) and 29th in slugging percentage (.322) and OPS (.618). 

Pittsburgh’s been struggling in recent games as well. Logan Webb, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen all recorded 6+ strikeouts against the Pirates. These are the last three right-handed starters against them. Prior to that, Spenser Watkins and Austin Voth both posted 5 strikeouts against them. 

The key here is Pivetta’s newer pitch mix. He’s been throwing his slider significantly more in recent games, breaking 24% in each of his last three starts. This is extremely important for this particular matchup. 

Pivetta has three strikeout pitches, but he can get whiffs on any of his pitches. His curveball’s his best put-away pitch, but he gets the most whiffs on his slider. These are likely to be the two key pitches in this particular matchup. 

The Pirates have plenty of players that struggle against the curveball. Although some have seen limited pitches this season, there are seven projected starters with a whiff rate over 30% against the curve. 

Pittsburgh has struggled the most against the slider, though. Here are their projected starters’ whiff rates against the pitch:

• Kevin Newman (34.8%)
• Bryan Reynolds (35%)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes (31.8%)
• Ben Gamel (46.1%)
• Oneil Cruz (67.1%)
• Greg Allen (40%)
• Bligh Madris (40%)
• Tucupita Marcano (33.3%)
• Jose Godoy (N/A)

As you can see there are plenty of whiffs available throughout the Pittsburgh lineup. If Pivetta continues to throw his slider at a higher rate, he should find plenty of success. His curveball should also be able to negate the left-handed batters. 

I’m expecting Pivetta to be able to throw deeper into this game, and if he gets six innings, he should find 6+ strikeouts. I love that we’re getting this at plus odds.

Red Sox vs. Pirates Pick: Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts | +105 at DraftKings