Rays vs. Brewers Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions – August 10, 2022: Two Stud Pitchers Battle It Out

MLB Best Bet Today – August 10, 2022

2:10 p.m. ET

Brandon Woodruff and the Milwaukee Brewers will host Jeffrey Springs and the Tampa Bay Rays at American Family Field today. For this bet, we’re backing two high-end starting pitchers early in this game. 

Woodruff’s enjoyed an outstanding season for Milwaukee thus far. He boasts a 9-3 record with a 3.49 ERA through 16 starts. He also owns a dominant 3.35 xFIP in those starts. 

Woodruff is a dominant strikeout option, entering this game with a 29.4% strikeout rate. He is a flyball pitcher, but he’s held his opponents to a 0.74 HR/9 through 85 innings in 2022. The only real concern is that his walk rate is up to 7.6%, which is his highest since 2018. 

Woodruff’s looked elite in Milwaukee this season, though. He boasts a 35.1% strikeout rate with an elite 2.35 xFIP through 34.2 home innings. He’s also been surprisingly better against left-handed batters, which will work in his favor in this matchup. 

The right-hander’s allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 10 starts. He’s allowing only 1.4 earned runs per game over that span. He’s also allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in 4 of 6 home games this season. 

Woodruff will face off against a struggling Tampa Bay offense. They currently rank 23rd in the MLB in OPS (.292) and 27th in slugging percentage (.333) over the last 14 days. 

The Rays have also struggled against right-handed pitching in recent weeks. They rank 19th in the league in average (.240) and OPS (.696) and 23rd in slugging percentage (.368) against righties since July 16th. 

Each of the last seven right-handed starters has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs to Tampa Bay. That group is allowing an average of 1 earned runs per game, although the total is boosted by a bad start by Bryan Shaw. Other starters that shut down Tampa Bay’s offense include Matt Manning, Garrett Hill, Bryan Garcia, and Drew Hutchison. 

Springs draws the start for the Rays, and he’s looked outstanding this season. He’s posted a 4-3 record with a 2.50 ERA through 22 games (14 innings). His success is backed by an outstanding 3.25 xFIP. 

Springs also has strikeout potential, as he brings a 26% strikeout rate into this game. He isn’t a groundball pitcher, but he has the ability to get them when he needs them. The left-hander doesn’t have the same walk concerns as Woodruff, but he does own a 1.25 HR/9, which is a slight cause for concern in Milwaukee’s stadium. 

Springs has been better on the road this season. His HR/9 drops to 1.03, while his xFIP dips to 3.05. It’s a bit surprising since Tampa Bay features one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB. He’s been a reverse splits pitcher as well, finding tremendous success against right-handed batters. 

Springs has been struggling a bit more in recent games, but he’s given up 1 or fewer earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. On the season, he’s given up 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of his 14 starts, including 5 starts without giving up any earned runs. 

The lefty gets an interesting matchup against Milwaukee’s offense. They rank fourth in the MLB in team wOBA (.362) and slugging percentage (.476) over the last 14 days. This doesn’t tell the whole story for this matchup, though. 

The Brewers have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. They rank 25th in the MLB in average (.203), 26th in slugging percentage (.305), and 21st in OPS (.620) against lefties since July 16th. 

Seven of the last nine left-handed starters have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs against Milwaukee. Nick Lodolo and Jose Quintana were the pair that allowed more than that. Six of those starters allowed one or fewer earned runs as well. 

The Brewers feature one of the hottest offenses in the MLB, but they aren’t nearly as good against left-handed pitching. They have plenty of uninspiring players that they could start to get the right-handed matchup against Springs, but he should have no problems against them as a reverse splits pitcher. 

I’m backing two pitchers that have found tremendous success early in this game.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers F5 u3.5  | +104 at FanDuel