Rangers vs. Rockies Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions – August 23, 2022: Looking to Take Advantage of a Streaky Pitcher

Rangers vs. Rockies Betting Odds

8:40 p.m. ET

German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies will host Dane Dunning and the Texas Rangers at Coors Field tonight. I’m backing a quietly good arm to find success at home tonight.

Marquez’s seen mixed results this season. He owns a 6-10 record with a 5.05 ERA through 23 starts. With that being said, he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the MLB, as he also boasts a 3.99 xFIP.

Marquez isn’t a dominant strikeout option, but he does have the ability to get them on occasion. He enters this game with an 18.6% strikeout rate. More importantly, he owns a 47.3% groundball rate in 2022.

The most important aspect of this play is the positive regression Marquez is due for in Colorado. He’s struggled with a 5.85 ERA through 72.1 home innings this season. He also owns a .344 BABIP and a 3.56 xFIP in Colorado, though. It’s only a matter of time before he starts finding more success at Coors.

Marquez gets a reasonable matchup against the Rangers tonight. They rank ninth in the MLB in team wOBA (.317) and 14th in slugging percentage (.382) over the last 14 days.

Texas has also seen mixed results against right-handed pitching. They rank 14th in the league in average (.247), 20th in slugging percentage (.376), and 17th in OPS (.694) against right-handed pitching since July 16th.

The Rangers have scored 2 or fewer earned runs in each of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Each of those starters threw 5+ innings as well. Overall, they’re averaging only 1.5 earned runs per game in those contests.

Dunning draws the start for the Rangers tonight. He’s seen plenty of ups and downs this season, posting a 3-6 record with a 4.06 ERA through 23 starts. His numbers are backed by a 4.03 xFIP as well.

Similar to Marquez, Dunning isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He enters this game with a 20.1% strikeout rate. He boasts a dominant 54.3% groundball rate, though. He’s also held his opponents to a 0.94 HR/9 this season.

The key for Dunning is his struggles on the road. His strikeout rate drops to 17.2% and his walk rate jumps to 10%. He’s also posted a 5.08 ERA with a 4.47 xFIP through 56.2 road innings. He’s consistently struggled to find success on the road.

Dunning gets a tough matchup against Colorado tonight. The Rockies rank 12th in the MLB in team wOBA (.312) and eighth in slugging percentage (.400) over the last 14 days.

Colorado currently ranks seventh in the league in average (.265), 15th in slugging percentage (.391), and 14th in OPS (.716) against right-handed pitching since July 16th. Surprisingly, they haven’t been as dominant as many would expect at home over that span.

The Rockies have seen mixed results in recent home games. They’ve scored 3+ runs in 6 of their last 8 games against a right-handed starting pitcher, though. They missed once with 2 runs against Dakota Hudson as well.

The Rockies have looked outstanding early in the game at home as well. They currently rank third in the MLB in runs scored (3.14) at home in the first five innings of the game. The Rangers haven’t been nearly as successful early in games, ranking as an average offense in runs scored (2.50) in the first five innings.

Colorado’s bullpen has struggled significantly more than Texas’ in recent games, and I’m looking to eliminate them by taking the first five innings for this bet.

We’re attacking a pitcher that is due for positive regression at home against a pitcher who’s consistently struggled on the road. It’s important to note that teams have struggled to adapt to Coors early in the series as well.

Rangers vs. Rockies Pick: Colorado Rockies F5 -0.5 RL | +106 at FanDuel