Padres vs. Mets Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions: Can Scherzer Hold Down Padres?

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Padres vs. Mets Betting Preview

7:10 p.m. ET

Max Scherzer and the New York Mets will host the San Diego Padres at Citi Field tonight. We’re backing an ace against a struggling offense after the All-Star Break.

Scherzer’s been elite when healthy throughout the 2022 season. He boasts a 6-1 record with a 2.22 ERA through 11 starts. His success is also backed by a dominant 2.90 xFIP. 

Scherzer’s a fly ball pitching, giving up 49% fly balls this season. His HR/FB rate is down to 7.8%, though, which is his lowest since 2014. Overall, he’s only giving up a 0.78 HR/9, which is where Scherzer’s generally struggled. 

He boasts an elite 11.7 K/9 through 69 innings. Scherzer enters this game with 34% strikeout, 15.5% swinging-strike, and 31.9% CSW rates. He also owns an outstanding 4.5% walk rate, forcing teams to beat him with their bats. 

Scherzer isn’t a pitcher that relies on double plays because he generally doesn’t put himself in dangerous situations. When he does get into trouble, though, he boasts elite strikeout stuff that consistently helps him get out of those types of situations. 

Scherzer’s found plenty of success through 11 starts with the Mets. He’s allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 of those 11 games. He’s also allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in 7 starts this season. 

Since returning from injury, Scherzer’s held his opponents to only 3 earned runs over 19.1 innings. Most importantly, he recorded 1.99, 2.66, and 0.94 xFIPs in those games, suggesting his elite success is warranted. 

The right-hander gets a plus matchup against the San Diego Padres tonight. They’ve been struggling offensively for quite some time, ranking 19th in the MLB in team wOBA (.301) over the last 14 days. They also rank 22nd in slugging percentage (.361) over that span. 

Oddly enough, San Diego’s recent offense should be inflated by a series at Coors Field, where they scored 5 or more runs in 3 of the 4 games. 

The Padres have also struggled against right-handed pitching throughout the season. They currently rank 19th in average (.238), 25th in slugging percentage (.371), and 21st in OPS (.684) against righties this season. 

Scherzer has two dominant pitches that he relies heavily on this season. First is the slider followed by the four-seamer. He ranks in the top 25 of all MLB pitchers in RV/100 with his slider. 

This is important because San Diego’s found some success against sliders this season, but I favor the dominant pitcher in this situation. The Padres have also struggled a surprising amount against the four-seamer, which is what Scherzer relies heavily on. 

The Mets have found plenty of bullpen success this season, and they will be fully rested after the All-Star Break. Furthermore, Scherzer should be able to pitch relatively deep into this game, meaning they’ll only need 2-3 innings from their bullpen tonight. 

Game script is another interesting aspect of this play because there is virtually no room for error. The Mets get a matchup against Yu Darvish, who has the ability to shut down offenses. They’re also an offense that has been struggling in recent games. 

If the Padres can stay within a couple of runs of the Mets, New York should use their best bullpen arms once Scherzer comes out of the game. This is an extremely important part of the play because of how low the total is set.

Padres vs. Mets Pick: Padres Team Total Under 2.5 | +110 at DraftKings

It is important to note that if you want a safer bet, you can bet under 3 runs for -120 at FanDuel.