Orioles vs. Rangers Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions: Can Gray Shut Down Orioles?

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Orioles vs. Rangers Betting Preview

8:05 p.m. ET

Jon Gray and the Texas Rangers will host the Baltimore Orioles at Globe Life Field tonight. I’m backing an elite home arm against a struggling road offense in this game. 

Gray’s thrown extremely well in 2022, posting a 7-5 record with a 3.62 ERA through 18 starts. His success is backed by an elite 3.32 xFIP. 

Gray’s seen mixed results at times this season. He owns an outstanding 27.1% strikeout rate to go along with a 43.2% groundball rate.

Although he isn’t elite in terms of groundballs, he’s a pitcher that has multiple ways to get out of trouble. He also owns dominant 29.5% hard-hit and 19.4% soft-hit rates in 2022. 

Gray’s struggled at times with walks, as he enters this game with a 7.9% walk rate. He isn’t a pitcher that generally struggles with control overall, though, making his walks somewhat surprising. 

This may not matter overall, though, as the most important part of this play is the location. Gray has been fantastic at home. His strikeout rate jumps to 34.1% while his walk rate dips to 4.1%.

His 2.93 home ERA is backed by a ridiculous 2.37 xFIP through 30.2 innings. The only major concern is that Gray does have a 1.17 HR/9 at home this season. 

The right-hander gets a great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Baltimore’s been struggling in recent games, ranking 22nd in the MLB in team wOBA (.296) and 23rd in slugging percentage (.361) over the last 14 days. 

The Orioles have also struggled against right-handed pitching this season. They rank 23rd in the league in average (.235), 14th in slugging percentage (.390), and 19th in OPS (.692) against righties. 

Once again, though, the key here is where the game is being played. Baltimore currently ranks 23rd in the MLB in average (.228), 15th in slugging percentage (.391), and 24th in OPS (.681) on the road against righties. It’s clear that this is a situation they struggle with. 

Gray’s been a dominant option early in games throughout the season. His xFIP the first time through the lineup sits at only 3.24. It dips to 3.01 the second time through the lineup before jumping to 3.83 the third time through. 

This is important because Baltimore’s struggled early in their games this season. They rank 23rd in the MLB in runs scored in the first five innings (2.18) this season. That number dips to 1.98 on the road. 

I’m shifting to the first five innings in this bet because Texas features one of the worst bullpens in baseball. They’ve been struggling recently, posting a 4.48 xFIP over the last 30 days.

Gray should be able to pitch more than five innings in this game, meaning we shouldn’t have to deal with any bullpen arms for the Rangers. 

There’s very little room for error with this play, which is scary, but Gray’s advanced metrics at home are as elite as anyone in the MLB, and I love the matchup against Baltimore.

Orioles vs. Rangers Pick: Orioles F5 Team Total Under 1.5 | -105 at DraftKings