Nationals vs. Mariners Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions – August 24, 2022: Fade Nationals Against George Kirby

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Nationals vs. Mariners Betting Odds

4:10 p.m. ET

George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners will host the Washington Nationals at T-Mobile Park today. I’m backing a dominant home starter with an elite bullpen against a struggling offense for this bet. 

Kirby has enjoyed an outstanding rookie season thus far. He enters this game with a 5-3 record and a 3.47 ERA through 17 starts. His success is backed by a solid 3.41 xFIP as well. 

He has the ability to get strikeouts when needed, as he brings a 24.3% strikeout rate into this game. Kirby also owns a 44.2% groundball rate, giving him multiple ways to get out of tough situations. 

The two biggest keys are that Kirby’s held his opponents to a 1.19 HR/9 this season, which is surprisingly higher than most would expect entering the season. He’s also held his opponents to a ridiculous 3.4% walk rate, as he boasts elite control. He forces teams to string hits together to score on him. 

Kirby has a dominant arm at home, where he’s due for plenty of positive regression. He’s posted a 3.72 ERA through 48.1 home innings thus far. He also owns a 3.06 xFIP in Seattle, where his strikeout rate increases and his walk rate decreases.

One of the more surprising parts of Kirby’s home results is that his HR/9 increases to 1.49 in Seattle. His hard-hit rate drops, though, and he throws in a pitcher-friendly stadium. I’m expecting this to drop as he throws more innings. 

He is coming off of a mediocre game against the Los Angeles Angels. Prior to that, he allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in six consecutive starts. Over that span, he’s allowed an average of only 1.3 earned runs per start. 

Kirby gets a great matchup against Washington today. They’ve been playing better than expected in recent games, but they’re still struggling. Over the last 14 days, they rank 19th in the league in team wOBA (.294) and 15th in slugging percentage (.376). 

The Nationals have also struggled against right-handed pitching. They rank 20th in the league in average (.238), 26th in slugging percentage (.363), and OPS (.657) against righties since July 16. The key here is their struggles with power. 

Washington has seen mixed results in recent games. The Nats have scored 1 or fewer earned runs against eight of the last 12 right-handed starting pitchers they’ve faced. Granted, they’ve faced some tough arms, but they also have arms like Keegan Thompson and Kyle Gibson on that list. 

I’d expect Kirby to throw roughly six innings in this game, giving a relatively short amount of time to the Seattle bullpen. This isn’t something I’m worried about, though. The Mariners bullpen has been on fire in recent weeks. They rank sixth in the MLB in bullpen xFIP (3.30) over the last 14 days. They also rank third in the league in ERA (2.25) over that span. 

If Kirby can hold down the Washington offense early in this game, I trust the Seattle bullpen to close it out later. This low of a total is always risky, but I feel completely comfortable attacking this offense in such a pitcher-friendly stadium.

Nationals vs. Mariners Pick: Nationals Team Total Under 2.5 | -102 at FanDuel