MLB Run Line Picks Today – Yankees vs. Mariners Run Line Bet: N.Y. Bats Will Take Advantage of Logan Gilbert

OddsJam’s MLB expert @ShayneTrail dives into the top run line pick he’s eyeing. Find his bet and prediction below.

Yankees vs. Mariners Betting Odds

10:10 p.m ET

Today, the biggest value on the run line goes in favor of the New York Yankees. Seattle’s first-round pick Logan Gilbert is a statistically poor pitcher — despite being 10-4.

When contact is made off of Gilbert, it is significant. Gilbert ranks in the bottom 3% of the league in hard-hit percentage; he also ranks in the second percentile in average exit velocity.

His 3.09 ERA is expected to be 4.28. This has shown so far that Gilbert has gotten the benefit of the doubt in the majority of his starts. He is mainly a fastball pitcher throwing it over 54% of the time. He has an expected batting average of .266 off of this pitch.

This has hurt Gilbert, resulting in him ranking in the 16th percentile in chase rate and in the 34th percentile in whiff percentage.

The Yankees will counter with Jameson Taillon. Unlike Gilbert, when hitters make contact off Taillon it’s nothing near significant.

Taillon ranks in the 71st percentile in hard-hit percentage showing that when he has contact off his fastball it is nothing near significant.

There are two trends that we can ride today. The Mariners are 4-20 in their last 24 games when playing at home against the Yankees. The Yankees are 11-5 when playing a game on Monday.

Bet on Logan Gilbert and his high exit velocity to be taken advantage of by these Yankees bats today. Bet the Yankees on the run line here in Seattle

Yankees vs. Mariners Run Line Pick: Yankees -1.5 | +145 at DraftKings