MLB Run Line Picks Today – Rockies vs. Padres Run Line Bet: Trust Blake Snell & Newly-Acquired Padres Bats

OddsJam’s MLB expert @ShayneTrail dives into the top run line pick he’s eyeing. Find his bet and prediction below.

Rockies vs. Padres Betting Odds

9:40 p.m. ET

Today, the biggest pitching mismatch goes in favor of the San Diego Padres as the Colorado Rockies will start with Chad Kuhl.

Coming into this game, he is 6-6 with a 4.09 ERA. Kuhl has slight regression possibly coming his way with an expected ERA of 4.90.

Kuhl’s most-thrown pitch, unfortunately, is also his worst pitch. Throwing the sinker over 41% of the time has allowed hitters to hit for a .361 average against it.

This pitch alone has placed him at the bottom of a lot of major pitching categories. He ranks in the 15th percentile in expected ERA, the 16th percentile in expecting batting average and the 16th percentile in hard-hit rate.

Ranking this poorly and in all these categories is not a recipe for success for a starting pitcher. 

On the other side of this game, the Padres will counter with Blake Snell. He is 3-5 with a 4.43 ERA. Unlike Kuhl, Snell has some positive regression coming his way.

Snell has an expected ERA of 3.46 — nearly a whole point lower than his actual ERA. His success is coming from his two secondary pitches. Snell is throwing both the slider and the curveball around 17% of the time.

Hitters have only managed to hit for a .123 average off his slider and a .136 average off his curveball. The Padres were also significant buyers at the deadline, picking up two power hitters Brandon Drury and Juan Soto.

Two trends we looked a ride today are; the Colorado Rockies are slumping — they are just 3-11 in the last 14 games overall — and they are 2-10 in their last 12 games overall against opponents in the National League.

Bet on Blake Snell and these newly-acquired Padres bats in Soto and Dury to get the job done today on the run line.

Rockies vs. Padres Run Line Pick: Padres -1.5 | -145 at DraftKings