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MLB Run Line Picks Today – White Sox vs. Orioles Run Line Bet: Taking Advantage of a Pitching Mismatch
OddsJam’s MLB expert @ShayneTrail dives into the top run line pick he’s eyeing. Find his bet and prediction below.
White Sox vs. Orioles Betting Odds
7:05 p.m. ET
Today the biggest pitching mismatch goes in favor of the Chicago White Sox. The Baltimore Orioles will send out 2013 5th-round pick Austin Voth. Coming into today Voth is 0-0, but holds a horrific 10.13 ERA paired with a 2.14 WHIP. Voth is mainly A fastball pitcher throwing it over 42% of the time. Hitters have slashed for a .261 average off of it. This has led to Voth to rank poorly in some major pitching categories; he ranks in the 20th percentile and barrel percentage, the 7th percentile in chase rate, and the 45th percentile in average exit velocity. Ranking poorly in these categories is not a recipe for success.
The Chicago White Sox will counter with Dylan cease. Coming into today Cease is 12-5 and having one of the best seasons in his career. His expected batting average is only .185 which is in the top 5% in the league. His expected ERA is only 2.69 which is in the top 9% in the league. This season has demonstrated why Cease is a sleeper for the AL Cy Young award.
With the Orioles just 3-9 in their last 12 games against the White Sox. While the White Sox have the clear pitching advantage, take the White Sox on the run line today to cover with ease.
White Sox vs. Orioles Run Line Pick: White Sox -1.5 | +115 at DraftKings
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Phillies vs. Reds Betting Odds
7:05 p.m. ET
Today the biggest pitching mismatch goes in favor of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Cincinnati Reds will send out Luis Cessa. Coming into today Cessa is 3-1 with a 5.50 ERA. Cessa is predominantly a three pitch pitcher. His best pitch is his slider.
His troubles come from his two secondary pitches; the sinker and change up, Both are arguably the worst secondary pitches in the MLB. Both pitches are being smashed for batting averages over .350. Cessa is mainly a bullpen arm throwing a maximum of two innings; today he will be tested against these tough Phillies bats.
The Phillies will counter with Noah Syndergaard. Coming into today he is 5-8 but has new life from being traded from the Los Angeles Angels. Syndergaard has looked sharper on the mound since being traded at the deadline. He will be pitching for an excellent Monday team. The Phillies are 12-4 their last 16 games on a Monday.
The Phillies are in a tight race for the wild card and can’t afford to drop any more games against poorly rated teams. Bet on the Phillies to take advantage of Luis Cessa, and his poor secondary pitches. Allowing them to continue their race for a wild card spot. Take the Phillies on the run line.
