MLB Run Line Picks Today – Nationals vs. Dodgers Run Line Bet: Back Tony Gonsolin in Pitcher Mismatch

Nationals vs. Dodgers Betting Preview

10:10 p.m. ET

The biggest pitching mismatch today comes in favor of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Washington Nationals will send out 35-year-old Paolo Espino. Coming into today, he is 0-3 with a 3.57 ERA.

But the worst has yet to come for Espino. With the xERA of 4.86, Espino’s troubles stem from mainly two pitches.

His four-seam fastball, which he throws 46.4% of the time, has an expected batting average of .283, ranking him near the bottom 15% of the league.

The other pitch that is causing him some trouble is his slider, which he throws 23.4% of the time and has a batting average of .317. To no surprise, Espino ranks near the bottom and a lot of major pitching categories.

He ranks in the 17th percentile in barrel percentage, the fifth percentile an expected slug percentage and, lastly, in the 27th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

This indicates that Espino does not get a lot of swings and misses, as well as the fact that contact is significant when he gets hit.

The Dodgers will counter with Tony Gonsolin. The 2022 standout has really picked up the slack since Walker Buehler went to the IL.

Gonsolin comes in today at a perfect 11-0 with a 2.02 ERA paired with a .84 WHIP. Gonsolin’s two best pitches are his split-finger fastball and a slider.

He throws his split-finger fastball 27% of the time and has a batting average of .107 against it. His second best pitch is a slider, throwing it 23.2% of the time with a batting average of .125 against.

Those are respectable numbers for his two most-thrown pitches.

A trend we must consider when looking at this matchup is the Nationals are 16-35 in the last 51 meetings against the Dodgers. A small trend that the Nationals also fall into — they are 1-5 in the last six games on Mondays.

With the clear advantage going to the Dodgers, bet on Los Angeles to cover the run line today with ease.

Nationals vs. Dodgers Run Line Pick: Dodgers -1.5 | -145 at DraftKings