MLB Run Line Picks Today – Mets vs. Nationals Run Line Bet: Lay the Points With Max Scherzer, New York

OddsJam’s MLB expert @ShayneTrail dives into the top run line pick he’s eyeing. Find his bet and prediction below.

Mets vs. Nationals Betting Odds

7:10 p.m. ET

Today, the biggest pitching mismatch goes to the New York Mets. The Washington Nationals will start 33-year-old Patrick Corbin.

Coming into today, Corbin is just 4-14 with a 6.49 ERA. Unfortunately, Patrick Corbin is this poor of a pitcher. Corbin has an expected ERA of 5.70, which places him firmly in the bottom 4% of the league.

He has an expected batting average of 2.91, which places him comfortably in the bottom 3% of the league. Corbin is a four-pitch pitcher, and unfortunately, only one of the four pitches is being hit for below a .300 average.

That pitch is his slider that is being hit for a .288 average against. All his other pitches — the sinker, the fastball and the changeup — are being hit for over .300 averages this year. That’s what we will call a recipe for disaster.

On the other side of this game, the Mets counter with Max Scherzer. Coming into today, Scherzer is 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA. Scherzer is a dominant strikeout pitcher, to say the least.

He ranks in the eighth percentile in barrel percentage and he also ranks in the 94th percentile in case percentage. Scherzer had an excellent July — in over 30 innings pitched he posted a 1.39 ERA.

The Nationals are in some very significant trends today. They are just 3-25 in their last 20 games against opponents in the National League East. They are just 2-12 in the last 14 games at home.

Take the Mets on the run line today to cover with ease.

Mets vs. Nationals Run Line Pick: Mets -1.5 | -130 at DraftKings